Global BEV Outlook: Tesla Vs. BYD Bid for Supremacy: BI Replay

Tesla is set to retain its annual global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales crown in 2024 and through the decade despite BYD being hot on its heels, with VW no longer a contender, though our analysis suggests combustion engines will dominate industry profit into 2030. Increased BEV rivalry is likely to spur intense price competition, pressuring margins, and BEV markets may remain fragmented, with Tesla the only real global player until legacy automakers launch scalable next-gen platforms in 2026-27. For now, BEV growth expectations may be blunted given consumer apathy over a lack of fast public chargers and high prices. China is an exception where BEV growth is underpinned by policy, subsidies and supply chain domination. Our 2022 report predicted that Tesla sales would be overtaken by 2024, which BYD achieved in 4Q23, rather than VW, but we expect this to be short lived. Speakers: Michael Dean, Global Head of Automotive Research, Bloomberg Intelligence Steve Man, Senior US Automotive Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence Joanna Chen, China Automotive Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence Tatsuo Yoshida, Senior Japan Automotive Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence