European Banks Credit: 2025 Credit Outlook

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Duration: 8 Minutes

Original Date: December 17, 2024

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European bank bonds could see positive excess returns in 2025 but driven by carry rather than tighter spreads, after the rally seen this year. Themes that may affect performance include deregulation, M&A, positive outlooks vs. sovereign rating strain (particularly in France), no loan growth, and improving outlook for commercial real estate loans. Issuance may come down due to pre-funding, lower funding needs and MREL surpluses. The French banks, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, UniCredit, Sabadell, Deutsche Bank and UBS could be in focus.

European Banks Credit: 2025 Credit Outlook

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