Edf’s Momentum Fades: Implications for Credit, Spreads (video)

Lower power prices may drive a 25% drop in EBITDA for 2025 and dampen the scope from a more liberalized regulatory framework for French nuclear output from 2026. At the same time, capital spending is accelerating due to the new nuclear construction program, investment in the distribution network, and the plan to double renewable capacity by 2030. As a result, leverage is likely to approach both the company’s internal targets and raters’ thresholds by 2027, reducing EDF’s capacity to absorb further cost overruns or earnings pressure. Continued state support remains crucial— particularly ahead of the decision on whether to construct six new nuclear reactors, which could cost €75 billion. Paul Vickars, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the key credit and spread drivers in this video snapshot.