Mid-Year Outlook 2025: Uncertainties Throwing a Wrench Into Leisure, Travel & Restaurant Spending

Macro uncertainties are overhanging the second half of 2025, but consumers continue spending on some parts of leisure, as seen by our mid-year US travel survey conducted in April to May. Many of the largest credits have solid cash flow expectations for 2025, while leverage stays low, helping as short-term buffers against tariffs, inflation and geopolitics. Cruise lines and higher-end hotels have momentum, while rental cars and some restaurants are feeling the pressure.