Digging the Dirt: Gold’s Glitter Test, Earnings and Fair Value: BI Replay

“Digging the Dirt” this week examines whether gold’s rally can hold as bullion outruns our fair-value model and the T-bond/gold ratio sits near a four-decade low. Central-bank and Asian demand remain supportive, but fading ETF inflows, gold’s elevated correlation with equities and an already-weaker dollar in our model raise the bar for further upside. Strong miner earnings and robust free cash flow provide a cushion if bullion momentum cools, leaving resilient equities as the key swing factor. Stronger bonds into year-end could still drive a meaningful ratio reversion.