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- Copper reached record highs in September. BloombergNEF research points to persistent supply constraints and growing demand from AI infrastructure, grid expansion and electrification.
- AI, data centers and expanding power grids are adding new sources of copper demand alongside electric vehicles, broader electrification and increased demand from China.
- BloombergNEF forecasts a supply deficit beginning in 2028 and widening to 20 million metric tons by 2050 – equivalent to 44% of projected global demand.
Copper prices are reaching new heights as several sources of demand converge. As of September 22, three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to settle at $14,748.50 a ton, while Comex copper futures hit a record of $6.9285 a pound.
PRODUCT MENTIONS
What is driving the changing outlook for copper demand and supply beyond recent price movements, and is increased demand expected to continue?
This article looks at the main forces shaping copper demand and supply, including AI infrastructure, grid expansion, electrification and economic security, and considers how quickly supply may be able to respond. It is based on expert insights shared at the 2026 Bloomberg Commodity Investor Forum in London and analysis from BloombergNEF.
AI is becoming an infrastructure story
Artificial intelligence is often viewed through semiconductors, software and technology companies. Scaling AI, however, requires substantial physical infrastructure.
“AI is described, or was described, as a technology story, but it’s far more than that. It’s actually an infrastructure story and requires massive investments, energy supply, infrastructure and a number of changes in the structure of the economy,” says Emanuele Di Stefano, CEO and Head of Index Product at Bloomberg.
According to BloombergNEF estimates, installed US data-center capacity could reach 194 gigawatts by 2035, an 83% increase from its December 2025 forecast. installed US data-center capacity could reach 194 gigawatts by 2035, an 83% increase from its December 2025 forecast.
The connection to copper comes through the power infrastructure needed to support that growth. Expanding those systems requires generation, transmission equipment and raw materials, creating another source of demand alongside electric vehicles and broader electrification.
Copper supply faces a slower response
Supply may prove harder to expand. New copper mines can take years to discover, permit, finance and develop, meaning production cannot necessarily respond quickly when demand accelerates. According to BloombergNEF research, the copper market could enter a structural deficit next year, with the shortfall potentially reaching 19 million metric tons by 2050 if additional mines and recycling capacity are not developed.
“We haven’t discovered many new copper mines in the last five years,” says Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. “There should, on paper, be a lot of demand for this stuff for the power infrastructure.”
Layton also connected copper directly with investment in AI. “There’s an AI race, particularly between the US and China. And this CapEx is coming and copper enables that,” he says.
If mine production cannot increase sufficiently, recycling could become a more important source of supply.
“We’re just not producing much more copper. So you’re going to have to get more scrap out of the system. And that’s going to cost a lot more money,” Layton says.
The imbalance between rapidly developing demand and slower-moving supply is central to the longer-term copper debate.
Grids and security broaden the demand story
AI is only part of the picture. Electric vehicles, renewable generation and grid expansion are already increasing demand for industrial metals.
At the same time, disruptions across global energy and commodity markets have increased the focus on economic security and resilient supply chains.
“Security, economic security and geopolitical shifts have put the energy and the commodity agenda at the center of governments,” Di Stefano says. (consider rewording?) “…have put energy and commodities at the center of governments’ agendas”
Copper therefore sits at the intersection of several investment cycles. AI requires computing and power infrastructure. Electricity networks need to expand. Transport is becoming more electrified, while governments and companies are paying greater attention to the resilience of strategic supply chains.
These developments are broadening the drivers of copper demand beyond its traditional relationship with global GDP growth.
Copper’s changing economic significance
Copper’s record prices have focused attention on the immediate market, but the longer-term story lies beneath them.
Rising power demand, grid expansion, electrification and greater focus on supply-chain resilience are increasing copper’s importance across several areas of the global economy.
These shifts can also change the economic significance of individual commodities over time. For benchmarks designed to represent commodity markets, changes in liquidity, production and economic importance can influence how changes in the underlying market are reflected.
As demand drivers broaden, copper is becoming increasingly connected to investment in technology, power infrastructure and economic security.
Learn more about Bloomberg Commodity Indices.
Insights in this article are based on BloombergNEF research and discussions at the 2026 Commodity Investor Forum in London.
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