Alternative Data Insights: Consumer spending growth in 2025

This article was written by the Bloomberg Alternative Data team: Richard Lai, Andrew McNellis, Janine Perri, Joe Hung, and Mike Ryan.

Welcome to Alternative Data Insights, a brief analyzing current market developments using alternative data, including US consumer transaction data and foot traffic data analytics. Learn more about how alternative data can enable analysts to access timely insights into company performance and consumer trends here.  

US consumer confidence declined in March 2025 to its lowest level in four years, amid concerns about higher prices and the economic outlook due to increasing tariffs. Is this decrease mirrored in consumer spending?

Consumer spending data, based on Bloomberg Second Measure analytics, powered by billions of U.S. consumer credit card and debit card transactions shows that overall observed U.S. consumer spending growth remains relatively stable, trending around 1% YoY on a trailing 28-day basis as of March 31, 2025, in line with spending growth observed throughout much of 2024.

There are, however, a few trends to note in the underlying drivers, the takeaway from which might signal consumer stress, but which can be also open to several interpretations.  

• Consumer spending continues to grow YoY. However, the growth appears to be more oriented around staples vs. discretionary spending.  

• Average transaction value (ATV) is driving growth, not the number of transactions. ATV, the average value of a transaction (in USD) in the selected period, grew recently for the first time in two years, meaning consumers are either buying more things or more expensive things at any given merchant.  

• Biggest merchants get bigger. Nearly 35% of observed consumer spending in the Bloomberg Second Measure panel is driven by roughly 10 merchants, and the bulk of this group is driven by Walmart, which also happens to be the merchant with the largest % gain in share over 2024.

• Walmart: a canary in coal mine? Although Walmart’s performance remains stable, recent data supports the CEO’s observation that consumers are experiencing financial strain. 

• Spending from lower-income cohorts is actually outgrowing higher-income cohorts. An analysis of consumer cohorts based on consistent shopping patterns at value-oriented retailers vs. more upscale retailers, as a proxy for low vs. high income respectively, shows that spending from the lower-income cohort has been outgrowing spending from the higher income cohort since around October 2024.   

U.S. consumer spending growth buoyed by non-discretionary spending and larger baskets 

Using the Bloomberg Second Measure Consumer Spend Index, we can see that U.S. consumer spending growth has been hovering around flat to +1% since February 2025 though this is roughly in line with where growth stood throughout much of 2024. Bloomberg Terminal subscribers can access this index via the World Economic Analyzer (ECAN<GO>) solution.

Sector contributions to U.S. consumer spending growth lean towards non-discretionary  

The largest contributor to U.S. consumer spending growth has been the General Merchandise Stores category (including companies such as Walmart and Costco). Overall, while it may be challenging to precisely categorize consumer purchases into  the majority of the U.S. consumer spending, U.S. consumer transaction data analytics show growth is being driven by General Merchandise suggesting a trend towards more non-discretionary spending.

Conversely, travel-related categories, furniture, and clothing have all shown a year-over-year decline. Exceptions to this trend are Restaurants and Sporting Goods, both of which are experiencing growth.

Basket size positive for the first time in two years 

U.S. consumer spending growth has been helped by ATV, which turned positive at the beginning of 2025 for the first time in two years. Higher ATV means consumers are buying more products, or more expensive products, at any given merchant.  Meanwhile, observed transaction growth continues to increase, although at a slightly reduced rate.  Possible reasons for this include stockpiling activity, reduced comparison shopping for prices, or generally higher prices. 

Merchant concentration: The big get bigger 

Nearly 35% of observed U.S. consumer spending is driven by roughly 10 merchants, and the bulk of the growth in this group is driven by Walmart, which as of the first three months of 2025, comprised 13.6% of all observed U.S. consumer spending with the basket. Walmart also happens to be the merchant with the largest spending share change, jumping 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The other largest merchants, Amazon, Costco, and the three largest grocery store chains (Kroger, Publix, HEB) also gained share of U.S. spending within the analyzed basket. Meanwhile, the notable companies that lost spending share are Lowe’s, Home Depot, and Target.  

Possible early signs of distress 

Zooming in on Walmart, the company’s CEO recently noted that American consumers are “showing signs of stress” as food prices remain high. Indeed, the cadence of consumer spending at Walmart, where the bulk of spending happens on Saturdays, shows that  the gap between the first Saturday of the month and the last Saturday has been the widest in January, February, and March 2025, compared to similar periods between 2022 and 2024. The last Saturday accounted for 91% of the spending observed on the first Saturday, whereas historically these figures are typically about even. 

However, there appears to be a contradiction when looking at shopping patterns by income. Using the Bloomberg Second Measure Transaction Level Data Product (TLDP) to create cohorts of customers who shop at value-oriented retailers like Aldi and T.J. Maxx (as a proxy for low-income) vs upscale retailers like Whole Foods and lululemon (as a proxy for high income), the data analytics indicate that lower–income shoppers’ spending has been outgrowing higher–income shoppers’ spending since roughly October 2024. It is worth noting however, that increased spending by lower-income customers does not necessarily imply that this expenditure is directed towards discretionary goods.

Unlocking insights with alternative data  

Interested in exploring alternative data insights for your investment strategy? Bloomberg’s Alternative Data solutions provide seamless access to trusted, high-quality alternative datasets. These data products include: 

• ALTD<GO>,  an alternative data tool providing Bloomberg Terminal users an early read on company performance, side-by-side with traditional market data, broker research, estimates and news. ALTD <GO> includes U.S. consumer transaction data from Bloomberg Second Measure and foot traffic data analytics from Placer.ai. The data is published on a 7-day lag with history starting from January 1, 2017.

• Bloomberg Second Measure aggregated data feeds via DATA <GO>, providing expanded coverage, reduced latency, and more granularity. Data is published on a 3-day lag with history starting from January 1, 2017.

• Bloomberg Second Measure granular data feeds, providing maximum flexibility to conduct analyses, including building custom panels and normalizations, creating custom cohorts, and tagging additional companies. Data is published on a 2-day lag with history starting from January 1, 2016. 

• The Bloomberg Second Measure (BSM) U.S. Consumer Spend Index, providing a near real-time comprehensive view of U.S. consumer spending via the World Economic Analyzer (ECAN<GO>) solution on the Bloomberg Terminal. The index is updated daily on a 7-day lag. 

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