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- Record ETF flows, trading volumes and product launches point to continued investor demand despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty
- Defence ETFs have become a major European investment theme as military spending, security policy and investor attitudes shift.
- Index methodology, UCITS distribution and regulatory reform are influencing ETF product design and investor access in Europe.
Europe’s ETF market is growing as record investor demand, rapid product innovation and emerging themes such as defence change how investors access regional markets. At Bloomberg’s ETFs in Depth event in London, industry experts discussed the forces driving Europe’s ETF landscape, from active ETFs and thematic defence products to UCITS distribution and index design.
PRODUCT MENTIONS
Investor appetite for ETFs continues to strengthen despite an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions and market volatility have done little to slow inflows, with US-listed ETFs surpassing US$1 trillion in net new assets before the halfway point of the year. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the industry is on pace to eclipse last year’s record US$1.5 trillion of inflows.
Why ETF inflows remain strong despite market uncertainty
“We’re going to have back-to-back Triple Crowns… and the numbers are astonishing,” says Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, describing a year in which ETF inflows, trading volumes and new product launches, the industry’s three key measures of growth, are all expected to reach record highs. US ETF inflows alone are forecast to hit US$1.7 trillion, alongside US$80 trillion in trading volume and more than 1,100 new launches.
While those figures are notable in their own right, Balchunas says the industry’s real story is the strength of investor demand. Despite a record number of issuers and an accelerating pace of product launches, the average ETF now holds more assets than ever before, suggesting that expanding product choice is being met by broad-based investor appetite rather than market fragmentation.
That conviction has led him to raise his long-term forecast for the global ETF industry from US$35 trillion to US$50 trillion in assets by 2035. The revision reflects more than buoyant markets. Record investor demand continues to attract new issuers, accelerate product innovation and reinforce the industry’s long-term growth trajectory.
Active ETFs are a case in point. Once dominated by passive strategies, the market is attracting a growing number of established asset managers as firms seek new ways to differentiate themselves. Active ETFs now account for 38% of US ETF inflows despite representing just 14% of industry assets.
Balchunas also points to the rapid growth of income-focused ETFs, which use derivatives to generate income; buffer ETFs, which combine downside protection with capped upside; and leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs, which give investors targeted exposure to individual companies, as examples of the industry’s continued product innovation.
The rise of defence ETFs as a key European investment theme
While the US continues to lead the global ETF market, Europe is rapidly gaining momentum. According to Henry Jim, ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the region had more than 2,600 ETFs managed by 88 issuers at the end of May, with assets reaching €2.7 trillion before surpassing the €3 trillion mark in early June. Inflows have nearly doubled from 2024 levels, while trading activity continues to rise. Although turnover still lags the US, Jim says deeper liquidity would attract more investors and help accelerate the market’s next stage of development.
One area where that momentum is particularly evident is defence. Once considered a niche allocation, defence has become one of Europe’s fastest-growing investment themes as higher military spending, geopolitical uncertainty and changing investor attitudes affect portfolio allocations. Marie-Sophie Pastant, Head of ETF and Index Portfolio Management at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says defence ETFs attracted around €10 billion in inflows last year, accounting for roughly two-thirds of thematic ETF inflows. Although flows have moderated this year, she says investors are increasingly favoring European defence companies, with the share of flows allocated to the region rising from 40% to 55%.
The investment case extends beyond geopolitical headlines. “The 3.5% GDP spending in defence is not totally priced in the market…. we’ve got a visibility that has not been seen before,” says Pastant, pointing to order books equivalent to around 3.5 times annual revenues as evidence of an earnings outlook underpinned by long-term government spending commitments.
As the sector expands, so too does the investable universe. Rather than concentrating on a handful of defence contractors, ETFs are providing diversified exposure across a broader ecosystem that includes aerospace, cybersecurity, communications and advanced technologies. According to Martijn Rozemuller, CEO Europe at VanEck investors should look beyond individual names and consider the wider supply chain. He also supports a rules-based approach to index construction. “If you take away the emotion, usually investment decisions are better,” he says, explaining why VanEck chose not to change its index rules to bring SpaceX into its ETF sooner.
How regulation, UCITS and index design impact Europe’s ETF growth
While investor demand continues to surge, product innovation and regulatory reform are opening new avenues for ETF investing. As European regulators increasingly recognize national security as a public good, ESG frameworks have been reassessed, allowing more defence companies to re-enter investable universes. “There’s no sovereignty without security,” says Pastant.
The recent SpaceX listing also highlights the growing importance of index construction. Using the company as an example, Balchunas says differences in index rules can lead to materially different outcomes for ETF investors. While some indices are expected to fast-track the company, others may wait up to a year before inclusion, says Balchunas, adding that index methodology can have a meaningful impact on investment outcomes.
Experts also highlight Europe’s long-term opportunity will depend on a more integrated capital market. Initiatives such as the Savings and Investment Union, alongside improvements to market infrastructure and cross-border distribution, could help unlock further ETF growth. Another important advantage is the UCITS framework, Europe’s cross-border fund regime, which has become the global standard for distributing investment funds. “UCITS is a global brand. It’s recognised across the globe,” says Ciarán Fitzpatrick, Global Head of ETF Product at J.P. Morgan Securities Services. It is particularly well recognized in Asia and enables issuers to distribute products efficiently across multiple international markets.
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Insights in this article are based on panels and fireside discussions at the ETFs in Depth event held in London in June 2026.