Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026

The electric vehicle market is entering the messy middle phase, with adoption accelerating in emerging markets even as growth slows in some of the world’s largest automotive markets. Changing policy support, trade tensions and global conflicts have pushed affordability and user economics to the forefront. Combined, these factors are reshaping the outlook for road transport. BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026 examines these changes across passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, two- and three-wheelers, and explores their implications for batteries and materials, electricity and charging infrastructure, oil demand and emissions. This year’s report also takes a deeper look at the variables impacting EV competitiveness and the regional differences in battery manufacturing costs. Discussion Topics: • Near-term and long-term EV adoption trends by market, region and vehicle segment, including the rapid growth of emerging EV markets • The impact of policy changes, trade tensions and shifting market dynamics on the global electrification outlook • EV affordability, battery-electric vehicle manufacturing costs and the path toward upfront-price and total-cost-of-ownership parity • Electrification of vans, trucks, buses and two- and three-wheelers, and the different trajectories emerging across these segments • Battery prices, manufacturing and supply-chain localization, and the outlook for battery materials and stationary storage • Electricity demand, grid investment and the more than $635 billion of charging-network investment required through 2040 • The impact of vehicle electrification on global oil demand, including BNEF’s outlook for road-fuel demand to peak in 2029 • The commercialization and outlook for shared mobility and autonomous vehicles