Global Autos 2026 Outlook: Margin Recovery, Bid to End Warning Cycle: BI Replay

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Duration: 59 Minutes

Original Date: January 13, 2026

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All eyes are on 2026 guidance after a "annus horribilis" as western automakers "kitchen sinked" 2025 earnings including the writing down of BEV investments amid a negative pricing environment, weak China sales and higher tariffs. Flawless execution on AI efficiencies are necessary to offset continued headwinds with credible Ebit margin targets needed to end the past two-year profit warning cycle and restore confidence in such an unloved sector. US automakers may enjoy an earnings tailwind from a greater mix of light trucks, after a recent proposal to loosen fuel-efficiency regulations. Japanese and South Korean manufacturers are breathing easier in their key US market, with a 15% tariff providing operational clarity. In China, retail auto sales will turn lower, snapping a three-year growth streak, even if trade-in subsidies are extended. BEV sales will continue higher but at a slower pace, with the R&D race in smart technologies heating up.

Global Autos 2026 Outlook: Margin Recovery, Bid to End Warning Cycle: BI Replay

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