The Global Tariff Storm and Two Oases of Calm: BI Replay

The ultimate consequences of the flurry of US tariffs are impossible to predict but one thing is certain, the disruption will lift global uncertainty levels. And when uncertainty increases, investment spending goes down. That almost always means recession. The downturn will be worst felt in the US as efforts to curtail government spending, even if the result of improved efficiency, intensify. Government deficits have been the main fuel for US economic growth over the past four years, and without them the services sector will stutter. Europe and Japan are already struggling to maintain positive growth rates so the advanced economies are a drag on global activity. The two oases in the desert of a global downturn are China and India. In China, real estate is no longer a drag and technology, local-government spending and service-sector tailwinds will provide major boost to growth over the next two years. In India it's more about recognizing the stability in policymaking that has become the hallmark of the Modi administration. Fiscal responsibility remains a cornerstone and government debt is set to fall to 50% of GDP by 2030. Join Dr Jim Walker, chief economist at Aletheia Capital, and Marvin Chen, China and North Asia equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, for a discussion on the macro outlook and implications for stocks.