US Card Lenders in 2025: Risks Skew to the Downside: BI Replay

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Duration: 34 Minutes

Original Date: February 10, 2025

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Loan growth at US card lenders is slowing fast, with consumers stretched by rising prices, slowing wage growth and declining savings, even as the Fed seems to have orchestrated a soft-landing. With card-lender valuations elevated, risks skew to the downside. Net interest margins may widen slightly with additional rate cuts, but significant expansion is unlikely in 2025. Net charge-offs remain bound to seasonality with no clear trend towards lower losses, though credit provisions could moderate in 1H on slowing growth. Card lenders’ continued strong credit performance and Donald Trump's return to the White House could lead to positive rating actions over the next 12-18 months.

US Card Lenders in 2025: Risks Skew to the Downside: BI Replay

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