{"id":110542,"date":"2025-03-14T19:36:20","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T23:36:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/markets\/is-that-the-bottom-recovering-commodities-bonds-vs-us-stocks\/"},"modified":"2025-04-07T23:55:34","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T03:55:34","slug":"is-that-the-bottom-recovering-commodities-bonds-vs-us-stocks","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/markets\/is-that-the-bottom-recovering-commodities-bonds-vs-us-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Is that the bottom? Recovering commodities, bonds vs. US stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d04658c4d71'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div>\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Is that the bottom? Recovering commodities, bonds vs. US stocks<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/commodities\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Commodities\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/trading\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Trading\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"806\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/391245839.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Gold granules\" title=\"Gold Granules Poured Into A Container\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d04658cd8bc'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">March 14, 2025<\/p>\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence<\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t<div class=\"bb-tts\" \n\t\t\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\t\t\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\" \n\t\t\tdata-overlay=\"false\" \n\t\t\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\t\t\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\t\t\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\t\t\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d04658cf510'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><em>This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Analyst Mike McGlone. <\/em><em>It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW74922534 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW74922534 BCX0\">A key theme of 2025 might be that reversion can be a powerful force. Broad commodity and US Treasury bond indexes are showing bottoming patterns from multidecade lows vs. the US stock market, which could portend what matters. The inordinate burden on rising US equity prices to lift all boats may have reached an apex with $100,000 Bitcoin. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW74922534 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW74922534 BCX0\">That gold ETF holdings are rapidly recovering, after four years of outflows, might not be coincidence on the back of the highly speculative crypto marking the biggest ETF launch ever in 2024. Gold appears on track to keep outperforming most risk assets and <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW74922534 BCX0\">commodities, but<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW74922534 BCX0\"> is stretched at almost $3,000 an ounce. Copper&#8217;s February 14 $4.84-a-pound high is atop our peak inklings radar, along with ceilings in corn of around $5 a bushel and $4 per million British thermal units in natural gas.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW74922534 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d04658d0ad3'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_5340606976874929784\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d04658d5aec'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"p1\">Reversion risks are down<\/h2>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h3><span class=\"TextRun SCXW192377617 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW192377617 BCX0\">Feint or enduring rally? Tilts toward $60 crude, $4 copper, corn <\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW192377617 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\">February may have set a 2025 ceiling for broad commodities. US tariffs could pressure copper to $4 a pound. Crude oil is increasingly comfortable below $70 a barrel. Corn is struggling to stay above $5 a bushel and US natural gas at $4 per million British thermal units often fuels reversion to $2. A bottoming Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index vs. the S&amp;P 500 might suggest what matters. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"TextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\">Commodities, T-bonds gaining upper hand vs. stocks? <\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\">There&#8217;s little doubt that broad commodities are <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\">relatively cheap<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\"> vs. the US stock market, but so are Treasury bonds, which may augur what matters. Our graphic shows the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) potentially bottoming from about a 25-year low vs. the S&amp;P 500 and similar inklings for the Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Total Return Index. The almost <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\">$12 trillion<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW228815840 BCX0\"> 2024 spike in US stock-market wealth (the most ever), along with Bitcoin&#8217;s spurt to $100,000, could have marked as-good-as-it-gets for risk assets, with deflationary implications.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW228815840 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"692\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.05.41%E2%80%AFPM.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Elevated Reversion Risks - BCOM, T-Bonds vs. Beta\" title=\"Elevated Reversion Risks - BCOM, T-Bonds vs. Beta\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.05.41%E2%80%AFPM.png 940w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.05.41%E2%80%AFPM.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.05.41%E2%80%AFPM.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.05.41%E2%80%AFPM.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.05.41%E2%80%AFPM.png 147w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW192225845 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW192225845 BCX0\">The Treasury bond index at the lowest in our database since 1992 vs. the S&amp;P 500 might suggest an upper hand vs. broad commodities, especially if WTI crude oil stays below $70 a barrel. It typically takes a catalyst for reversion; US tariffs and cost cutting might be sparks.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW192225845 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"p1\">$60-$80 crude vs. $4-$5 copper, corn, treasury bonds<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW76800593 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\">WTI crude oil&#8217;s 2025 high to Feb. 27 at about $80 a barrel might be leaning toward $60, with implications for most commodities and interest rates. That lower energy prices and Treasury bond yields are <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\">stated<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\"> goals of the Trump administration could solidify ceilings, along with headwinds from excess US crude, <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\">gas<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\"> and liquid-fuel supply. It might not be coincidence that the US Treasury long bond&#8217;s January 5% high <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\">roughly coincided<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW76800593 BCX0\"> with $80 crude. Our graphic of the per-pound price of copper, bushels of corn and 30-year yield on the same scale shows good resistance at around $5 to 5%, and implications if oil drops toward $60.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW76800593 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"942\" height=\"734\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.09.12%E2%80%AFPM.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Crude $60 Leanings vs. Corn, Copper, Bond Yields\" title=\"Crude $60 Leanings vs. Corn, Copper, Bond Yields\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.09.12%E2%80%AFPM.png 942w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.09.12%E2%80%AFPM.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.09.12%E2%80%AFPM.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.09.12%E2%80%AFPM.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.09.12%E2%80%AFPM.png 139w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW217510105 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW217510105 BCX0\">Crude at about $70 appears on track to visit its US breakeven cost around $57. Unless WTI can put distance above $70, we see corn, copper, and Treasury bonds likely to lean to $4 to 4% rather than above $5 to 5%.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW217510105 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Commodity risks appear down with copper, bond yields<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The new year and significant shift in US leadership and policy have launched gold and copper to the top of 2025 performers, pressuring crude oil and Bitcoin. It&#8217;s a question of trend duration and we put the industrial metal in a least-likely category of continuing to rally in the face of US tariffs. Strength needs to be proved above Feb. 14&#8217;s $4.84-a-pound high is how we see copper versus its typical autocorrelation tendency toward $4. Rising US excess crude oil, liquid fuel and natural gas supply are notable preexisting trends favoring Trump administration goals of lower energy prices and Treasury bond yields.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"558\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.13.28%E2%80%AFPM.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"It&#039;s a New Year - What Stops Gold Beating Crude?\" title=\"It&#039;s a New Year - What Stops Gold Beating Crude?\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.13.28%E2%80%AFPM.png 962w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.13.28%E2%80%AFPM.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.13.28%E2%80%AFPM.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.13.28%E2%80%AFPM.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.13.28%E2%80%AFPM.png 186w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW266658048 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW266658048 BCX0\">The highest level of gold in our database since 1992 vs. US Treasury bonds could suggest a top beneficiary of some reversion, especially if the US stock market declines. Bitcoin might be the primary leading indicator.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW266658048 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Gold set to take the 2025 medal? <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Led by gold, the least-elastic precious metals atop our annual sector-performance dashboard vs. the most supply-to-price sensitive grains on the bottom could be trends with legs in 2025. Headwinds for energy and agriculture resonate from the price spikes to the 2022 highs. Low-price cures can take years and crude- and liquid-fuel supply excesses in the US, Canada and OPEC vs. waning demand from China tilt our bias toward $60 a barrel WTI crude oil more likely than above $80. Similar in US natural gas, reverting to $2 per million British thermal units has been normal after reaching $4.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"432\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.17.55%E2%80%AFPM.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Low-Price Cure May Not be Done - Energy, Grains\" title=\"Low-Price Cure May Not be Done - Energy, Grains\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.17.55%E2%80%AFPM.png 950w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.17.55%E2%80%AFPM.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.17.55%E2%80%AFPM.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.17.55%E2%80%AFPM.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.17.55%E2%80%AFPM.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW69090705 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW69090705 BCX0\">A massive supply of soybeans from Brazil, about twice the US exports, <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW69090705 BCX0\">represents<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CopilotHighlight SCXW69090705 BCX0\"> a top agriculture headwind. Absent a poor Corn Belt growing season, we see $9 a bushel beans and $4 corn as more likely than above $11 and $5.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW69090705 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"972\" height=\"1558\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Index Performance\" title=\"Index Performance\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png 972w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png 958w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Screenshot-2025-03-14-at-4.20.09%E2%80%AFPM.png 67w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><em>Terminal subscribers can access full version of this report via BI &lt;GO&gt;.<\/em><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d04658e2007'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-accordion transparent\">\n\t<input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-69d04658e3060\">\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-parent\" data-accordion-toggle aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t<label class=\"bbg-accordion-label\" for=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-69d04658e3060\">\n\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"bbg-accordion-title\" data-label=\"Disclaimer\">\n\t\tDisclaimer\n\t<\/h5>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class='bb-wysiwyg '>\n\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\"><em>The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the \u201cServices\u201d) are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (\u201cBFLP\u201d) except (i) in Argentina, Australia and certain jurisdictions in the Pacific Islands, Bermuda, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, where Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries (\u201cBLP\u201d) distribute these products, and (ii) in Singapore and the jurisdictions serviced by Bloomberg\u2019s Singapore office, where a subsidiary of BFLP distributes these products. BLP provides BFLP and its subsidiaries with global marketing and operational support and service. Certain features, functions, products and services are available only to sophisticated investors and only where permitted. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy of prices or other information in the Services. 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Commodity and US Treasury bond indexes show bottoming patterns from multidecade lows vs. the US stock market, Bloomberg Intelligence analysis shows. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1935,"featured_media":78128,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"453","footnotes":""},"categories":[540,453,444],"tags":[565,3794,451,454],"series":[],"class_list":["post-110542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-markets","category-trading","tag-bloomberg-intelligence","tag-commodities","tag-corporations","tag-equities","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is that the bottom? 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