{"id":138753,"date":"2026-04-08T16:01:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T20:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/commodities\/the-iran-conflict-out-of-sample-evidence-for-global-energy-diversification\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T16:01:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T20:01:36","slug":"the-iran-conflict-out-of-sample-evidence-for-global-energy-diversification","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/commodities\/the-iran-conflict-out-of-sample-evidence-for-global-energy-diversification\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iran conflict: Out-of-sample evidence for global energy diversification"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be813fedd'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div>\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">The Iran conflict: Out-of-sample evidence for global energy diversification<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/commodities\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Commodities\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/310311199-resiz-e1775667637387.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Oil refinery\" title=\"Oil refinery\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be814a386'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">April 8, 2026<\/p>\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Professional Services<\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t<div class=\"bb-tts\" \n\t\t\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\t\t\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\" \n\t\t\tdata-overlay=\"false\" \n\t\t\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\t\t\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\t\t\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\t\t\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be814cd7a'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--has-bg-color\"\n    style=\"background-color:#e6f3ff;border-radius: 16px 16px 16px 16px;\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-custom bbg-card-text-black\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n      <style>#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {background-color: #e6f3ff;}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tborder: 1px solid #e6f3ff !important;\n\t}#card_1:hover .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tborder: 1px solid #e6f3ff !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tpadding: calc(var(--brand-large-padding, 40px) - 1px) !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__title {\n\tcolor: #000000 !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__content,#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__content p  {\n\tcolor: #000000 !important;\n\t}#card_1.bbg-card_hasImage .bbg-card__innerwrapper{padding-top: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);padding-left: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);padding-right: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);}<\/style>\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__eyebrow\" style=\"color: #000000\">KEY TAKEAWAYS<\/div>\n      \n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;679f3b2c-153b-5071-bf1d-4b0991a9f682|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;1&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;1&quot;,201342449,&quot;1&quot;,469777841,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777842,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777843,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777844,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,201341986,&quot;1&quot;,469769226,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,268442635,&quot;24&quot;,469775450,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,134233118,&quot;true&quot;,134233117,&quot;true&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\">The Iran conflict highlights how geopolitical shocks drive divergence across crude oil and natural gas benchmarks, reflected in Bloomberg\u2019s global energy indices.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"LineBreakBlob BlobObject DragDrop SCXW159977279 BCX0\"><span class=\"SCXW159977279 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">Global energy diversification can reduce exposure to localized shocks, as seen in widening spreads between <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">Murban<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">, WTI and European vs US natural gas markets tracked across Bloomberg indices.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">Structural constraints such as LNG transport limitations reinforce regional price dislocations, supporting multi-benchmark global energy exposure through Bloomberg<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0global energy indices.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW159977279 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be8150810'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><em><span class=\"TextRun SCXW156070147 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">This article was written by Francisco Ibanez,\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">Quant<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">Research<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">er<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">\u00a0and Jim Wiederhold, Commodity Indices Product Manager at Bloomberg<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW156070147 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;679f3b2c-153b-5071-bf1d-4b0991a9f682|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;1&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;1&quot;,201342449,&quot;1&quot;,469777841,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777842,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777843,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777844,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,201341986,&quot;1&quot;,469769226,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,268442635,&quot;24&quot;,469775450,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,134233118,&quot;true&quot;,134233117,&quot;true&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\">When we published\u00a0<\/span><\/span><a class=\"Hyperlink SCXW97301280 BCX0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/sustainable-finance\/powering-the-future-a-modern-benchmark-for-a-multi-polar-world\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"TextRun Underlined SCXW97301280 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CommentStart CommentHighlightPipeRest CommentHighlightRest SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Hyperlink\">Powering the Future: A Modern Benchmark for a Multi-Polar World<\/span><\/span><\/a><span class=\"TextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CommentHighlightPipeRest SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">report\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">in September 2025, we argued that the global oil and natural gas landscape had undergone a structural transformation, and that traditional, geographically concentrated energy benchmarks<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0may<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0no longer capture the full\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">global energy picture<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW97301280 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be8152d08'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-3\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div><hr class=\"bbg-separator bbg-separator-1\" style=\"height:1px;\" \/>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">PRODUCT MENTIONS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n<div\n  id=\"cta_48804850838629497\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta no-icon\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p left\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/indices\/commodities\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"Bloomberg Commodity Indices\"\n        >\n                      Bloomberg Commodity Indices\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><hr class=\"bbg-separator bbg-separator-1\" style=\"height:1px;\" \/>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-1\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW32288824 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW32288824 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;679f3b2c-153b-5071-bf1d-4b0991a9f682|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;1&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;1&quot;,201342449,&quot;1&quot;,469777841,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777842,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777843,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777844,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,201341986,&quot;1&quot;,469769226,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,268442635,&quot;24&quot;,469775450,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,134233118,&quot;true&quot;,134233117,&quot;true&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\">The\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW32288824 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">US-<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW32288824 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">Iran conflict that erupted in early 2026 has provided a real-time, out-of-sample stress test of that thesis. The results so far are consistent with what the research predicted: regional energy contracts have diverged sharply, and globally diversified exposure has served as a buffer against localized shocks.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be8157229'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_2\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Tailored indices insights and invitations in your inbox<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Sign up<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_4426745888364600959\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/explore\/indices-insights-tailored-to-your-interests\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be815c739'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">The Strait of Hormuz: A\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">c<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">hokepoint\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">u<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">nder\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">tress<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW14368521 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tested one of the most critical arteries of global energy supply.\u00a0Roughly a\u00a0fifth\u00a0of global\u00a0liquified natural gas (LNG)\u00a0and\u00a0a\u00a0quarter\u00a0of\u00a0world seaborne\u00a0oil\u00a0transit the strait on any given day\u00a0prior to the conflict,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">according to\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/about\/oil-security-and-emergency-response\/strait-of-hormuz\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">data from International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"none\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As\u00a0Exhibit 1\u00a0illustrates,\u00a0the concentration of vessels and refining infrastructure in the\u00a0region underscores the\u00a0magnitude\u00a0of the disruption. Iranian strikes on Qatar&#8217;s Ras Laffan complex, one\u00a0of\u00a0the world\u2019s largest LNG export\u00a0hubs, have compounded the physical blockage with lasting infrastructure damage. QatarEnergy\u00a0indicated\u00a0that\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-19\/iran-strike-damages-17-of-qatar-lng-for-3-5-years-reuters-says\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">restoring 17% of its capacity may take 3-5 years.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For investors benchmarking against a narrow set of North American energy contracts, these events register as noise. For a globally diversified energy basket, they\u00a0represent\u00a0exactly the kind of localized shock the benchmark is designed to\u00a0reflect.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2-1.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Vessel Traffic and Refinery Infrastructure Around the Strait of Hormuz\" title=\"Vessel Traffic and Refinery Infrastructure Around the Strait of Hormuz\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2-1.png 940w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2-1-552x274.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2-1-800x397.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2-1-768x381.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2-1-192x95.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">Crude\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">o<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">il:\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">Murban<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">crude d<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">iverges from WTI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW154488385 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;679f3b2c-153b-5071-bf1d-4b0991a9f682|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;1&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;1&quot;,201342449,&quot;1&quot;,469777841,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777842,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777843,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777844,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,201341986,&quot;1&quot;,469769226,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,268442635,&quot;24&quot;,469775450,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,134233118,&quot;true&quot;,134233117,&quot;true&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\">The divergence across crude benchmarks has been sharp and instructive. Exhibit 2 tracks the performance of\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">Murban<\/span><\/span><span class=\"TrackChangeTextInsertion TrackedChange SCXW41889471 BCX0\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"TextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">crude<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0(<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">ticker:\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">MUC) against W<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">est Texas Intermediate<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0(<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">ticker:\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">CL) year<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">to<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">date.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">Murban<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0surged to\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">roughl<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">y<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CommentStart SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">$1<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">5<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0a barrel in mid-March as the conflict tightened supply from its primary production and delivery region, while WTI peaked near $103. The spread between the two contracts, shown in the lower panel, reached\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">its historical maximum of\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">$48 per barrel before narrowing as markets partially\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">repriced<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0the probability of a swift resolution.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW41889471 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"977\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Murban-WTI spread between April 2025 and April 2026\" title=\"Murban-WTI spread between April 2025 and April 2026\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2.png 977w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2-552x333.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2-800x482.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2-100x60.png 100w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-2.2-179x108.png 179w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 977px) 100vw, 977px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This\u00a0is not a uniform oil shock. It is a regional dislocation concentrated at the Middle Eastern node of the global pricing network. The US market, as a net exporter with record domestic\u00a0crude oil\u00a0production approaching\u00a013.6\u00a0million barrels a day,\u00a0as information from\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">the\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">U.S. Energy Information Administration<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> shows,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">is\u00a0structurally insulated from the\u00a0Persian Gulf bottleneck.\u00a0The US share\u00a0of crude oil imports travelling through the Strait of Hormuz fell from\u00a0nearly\u00a0a\u00a0third in 2000 to 8% in 2025.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:257}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Bloomberg Intelligence&#8217;s energy team sees the December 2026 WTI future more likely heading toward $50 than <span class=\"TextRun SCXW239833418 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW239833418 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">$50 than staying above $100*<\/span><\/span>. Bloomberg Terminal subscribers can access Bloomberg Intelligence research via BI&lt;GO&gt;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Brent, while exposed to the global repricing, has also remained well below Murban&#8217;s peak. This three-way divergence across Murban, WTI, and Brent is precisely the kind of multi-polar pricing behavior we documented in the <i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Powering the Future<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0report\u00a0and the reason the\u00a0Bloomberg Global Commodity Oil and Gas Index\u00a0includes all three benchmarks as distinct components.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">Natural\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">g<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">as: Transatlantic\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">d<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">ecoupling\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">i<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Strong\">ntensifies<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW17273609 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Iran conflict is not only an oil story. Qatar accounts for\u00a0roughly 20%\u00a0of global LNG exports, with about 80% of those volumes serving Asian buyers and the balance flowing primarily to Europe,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=65584\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">according to EIA<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The strikes on Ras Laffan and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have effectively taken that supply offline, at least temporarily, and the ripple effects are global. Europe is particularly exposed.\u00a0LNG now accounts for 40-45% of the EU&#8217;s total gas supply,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ieefa.org\/european-lng-tracker\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">according to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, up from less than 25% before Russia&#8217;s curtailment of pipeline deliveries in 2022, and Qatari cargoes represent about 8% of those LNG imports, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysis**. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In absolute terms, the volumes at risk are modest relative to the continent\u2019s total consumption. But in a market already running on thin storage and record LNG dependence, even a partial loss of Qatari supply tightens the global competition for spot cargoes and amplifies price moves. This helps explain the pronounced transatlantic divergence shown in Exhibit 3. <\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"981\" height=\"812\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-3.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"US, Dutch, and UK Natural Gas Price Performance \u2013 2026 YTD\" title=\"US, Dutch, and UK Natural Gas Price Performance \u2013 2026 YTD\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-3.png 981w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-3-552x457.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-3-800x662.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-3-768x636.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-3-130x108.png 130w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 981px) 100vw, 981px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The mechanics of this decoupling are structural, not transient. As we emphasized in the white paper, natural gas is far less fungible than crude oil. Transporting it between continents requires the capital-intensive process of liquefaction, shipment via specialized carriers, and regasification at the destination hub.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This physical barrier\u00a0largely prevents\u00a0arbitrage between the two markets, meaning the European and American natural gas complexes respond to different supply-demand dynamics and are exposed to different idiosyncratic risks.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This decoupling was statistically confirmed by the cluster analysis in our <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Powering the Future <\/span><\/i>report<span data-contrast=\"auto\">,\u00a0which showed American and European natural gas forming two distinct risk sub-clusters within the energy universe, as shown in Exhibit 4. A US-only natural gas benchmark\u00a0might\u00a0miss\u00a0the\u00a0drivers of\u00a0European pricing entirely.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"981\" height=\"845\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-4.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Clustering Analysis of the Expanded Energy Complex\" title=\"Clustering Analysis of the Expanded Energy Complex\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-4.png 981w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-4-552x475.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-4-800x689.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-4-768x662.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-4-125x108.png 125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 981px) 100vw, 981px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In the <em>Powering the Future<\/em> report, we presented three case studies illustrating how global diversification can shield portfolios from localized shocks: the Freeport LNG terminal explosion of 2022, the disruption of Russian gas to Europe, and the WTI negative price event of April 2020. The Iran conflict now serves as a fourth. The pattern is consistent: when a geopolitical or infrastructure shock hits one regional market, contracts tied to other geographies behave differently, and a globally diversified basket absorbs the impact more evenly.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For institutional investors\u00a0allocating\u00a0to the energy sector, the implication is straightforward. In a world where pricing power is distributed across the US Gulf Coast, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East, benchmarks need to reflect that reality.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Bloomberg Global Commodity Oil and Gas Liquidity Weighted Index (GCOMOGL) was built for this environment by adding four new contracts to the traditional Natural Gas and Crude Oil contracts: Midland WTI Crude Oil,\u00a0Murban\u00a0Crude Oil, Dutch TTF Natural Gas, and UK NBP Natural Gas. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As seen in Exhibit 5, the overall performance impact of the events of early 2026 suggests the design is working as intended, translating into year-to-date\u00a0outperformance when compared to a more traditional energy basket.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-5.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Performance Comparison GCOMOGL vs. BCOMEN \u2013 2026 YTD\" title=\"Performance Comparison GCOMOGL vs. BCOMEN \u2013 2026 YTD\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-5.png 962w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-5-552x486.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-5-800x704.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-5-768x676.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Blog-5-123x108.png 123w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;679f3b2c-153b-5071-bf1d-4b0991a9f682|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;1&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;1&quot;,201342449,&quot;1&quot;,469777841,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777842,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777843,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,469777844,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,201341986,&quot;1&quot;,469769226,&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,268442635,&quot;24&quot;,469775450,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;font-claude-response-body&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,134233118,&quot;true&quot;,134233117,&quot;true&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\">L<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">earn\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">more about<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">GCOMOGL\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">methodology<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">, clic<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">k\u00a0<\/span><\/span><a class=\"Hyperlink SCXW27358832 BCX0\" href=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/27\/Bloomberg-Global-Commodity-Oil-and-Gas-Liquidity-Weighted-Indices.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"TextRun Underlined SCXW27358832 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Hyperlink\">here<\/span><\/span><\/a><span class=\"TextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0or\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">explore<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"font-claude-response-body\">\u00a0Bloomberg Commodity Indices\u00a0<\/span><\/span><a class=\"Hyperlink SCXW27358832 BCX0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/indices\/commodities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"TextRun Underlined SCXW27358832 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW27358832 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Hyperlink\">here.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"attribution\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">*<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\"> McGlone, M., &amp; Piazza, V. G. (2026, March 30). US natural gas&#8217; 100% 1Q pump-then-dump may guide 2026 crude oil. Bloomberg Intelligence.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"attribution\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">**\u00a0Alvarez, P., &amp; Martins, J. (2026, March\u00a020).\u00a0Qatar outages set to dent supply even if war de-escalates. Bloomberg Intelligence.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7be81663d2'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-accordion transparent\">\n\t<input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-69d7be816863b\">\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-parent\" data-accordion-toggle aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t<label class=\"bbg-accordion-label\" for=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-69d7be816863b\">\n\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"bbg-accordion-title\" data-label=\"Disclaimer\">\n\t\tDisclaimer\n\t<\/h5>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class='bb-wysiwyg '>\n\t\t\t<p><strong>BISL Disclaimer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The data and other information included in this publication is for illustrative purposes only, available \u201cas is\u201d,\u00a0non-binding and constitutes the provision of\u00a0factual information, rather than financial product advice.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">BLOOMBERG and BLOOMBERG INDICES (the \u201cIndices\u201d) are trademarks or service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. 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Widening regional spreads underscore the value of diversified exposure across global energy benchmarks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1935,"featured_media":138759,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"540","footnotes":""},"categories":[540,453],"tags":[3794,3673,547,3842],"series":[],"class_list":["post-138753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-markets","tag-commodities","tag-commodity-indices","tag-indices","tag-indices_2026","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Iran conflict: Out-of-sample evidence for global energy diversification | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Iran conflict highlights how geopolitical shocks drive divergence across crude oil and natural gas benchmarks. 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