{"id":139382,"date":"2026-04-30T11:19:56","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T15:19:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/risk\/how-to-navigate-geopolitical-stress-with-mac3\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T11:25:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T15:25:27","slug":"how-to-navigate-geopolitical-stress-with-mac3","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/risk\/how-to-navigate-geopolitical-stress-with-mac3\/","title":{"rendered":"How to navigate geopolitical stress with MAC3"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f10b250'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">How to navigate geopolitical stress with MAC3<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/regional-analysis\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Regional Analysis\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/risk\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Risk\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3000\" height=\"2000\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/m6125661.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/m6125661.jpg 3000w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/m6125661.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/m6125661.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/m6125661.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3000px) 100vw, 3000px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f11bed4'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">April 30, 2026<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Professional Services<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f11fdd5'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--has-bg-color\"\n    style=\"background-color:#e6f3ff;border-radius: 16px 16px 16px 16px;\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-custom bbg-card-text-black\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n      <style>#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {background-color: #e6f3ff;}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tborder: 1px solid #e6f3ff !important;\n\t}#card_1:hover .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tborder: 1px solid #e6f3ff !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tpadding: calc(var(--brand-large-padding, 40px) - 1px) !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__title {\n\tcolor: #000000 !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__content,#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__content p  {\n\tcolor: #000000 !important;\n\t}#card_1.bbg-card_hasImage .bbg-card__innerwrapper{padding-top: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);padding-left: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);padding-right: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);}<\/style>\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__eyebrow\" style=\"color: #000000\">KEY TAKEAWAYS<\/div>\n      \n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">From\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">f<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">actors to\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">f<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">undamentals:<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>MAC3 Macro Scenario Analysis moves beyond simple market shocks by linking portfolio performance to structural economic drivers\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">of<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">\u00a0GDP growth<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">inflatio<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169223081 BCX0\">n.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW191495471 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW191495471 BCX0\"><strong>Precision in times of crisis:<\/strong> Using a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, the framework is designed to translate geopolitical uncertainty<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW191495471 BCX0\">\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW191495471 BCX0\">such as current Middle East instability<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW191495471 BCX0\">\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW191495471 BCX0\">into granular factor shocks across 3,000+ global assets.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW191495471 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;335559738&quot;:240,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW144017989 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW144017989 BCX0\"><strong>Actionable and adaptive:<\/strong> Investors can scale predefined scenarios or select custom variance<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW144017989 BCX0\">\u2014<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW144017989 BCX0\">covariance matrices to reflect the elevated correlations typically\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW144017989 BCX0\">observed<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW144017989 BCX0\">\u00a0during periods of macro stress.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW144017989 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f123362'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article was written by Antonios Lazanas, Head of Quantitative Investment Research, and Changxiu \u201cSue\u201d Li, Head of Fixed Income Portfolio Analytics at Bloomberg.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The investment landscape of 2026 has been defined by a rapid transition from theoretical risks to realized market shocks. For many investors, instability in the Middle East has moved beyond headline risk and into measurable portfolio impact. In this environment, traditional risk models &#8211; often based on simple historical factor shocks &#8211; can struggle to capture the multi-dimensional nature of global macro events.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f124fd7'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-3\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div><hr class=\"bbg-separator bbg-separator-1\" style=\"height:1px;\" \/>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">PRODUCT MENTIONS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n  id=\"cta_5375402566947210775\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta no-icon\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p left\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/professional.bloomberg.com\/products\/risk\/mac3\/?utm_source=google&amp;utm_medium=pdsrch&amp;utm_campaign=bside&amp;utm_content=text_mac3&amp;tactic=1014886&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=23337214764&amp;gbraid=0AAAAADdH1c9lGu_1PTD1P2HFDzmTZgwbH&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjw4PPNBhD8ARIsAMo-icwrbE3bDUroWZYRXTN9tm8KsAgTtN_rzVxL7ojCsoBNNlcbnHmVjXEaAvFYEALw_wcB\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"MAC3\"\n        >\n                      MAC3\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>\n<div\n  id=\"cta_7937893067314608516\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta no-icon\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p left\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/professional.bloomberg.com\/products\/bloomberg-terminal\/portfolio-analytics\/?utm_source=google&amp;utm_medium=paid_search&amp;utm_campaign=global_buyside_bs_2026_ao&amp;utm_content=text_ims-search-product-port-branded&amp;tactic=1035335&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=23769737464&amp;gbraid=0AAAAADdH1c9Cwm_PLrm-TZYZgJ_Rc1aBd&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwtcHPBhADEiwAWo3sJhl55nN_xM21LWJhA7C9ziHJLDrljvphLsPkSzjzzl3vIgtNB3klcBoCikUQAvD_BwE#overview\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"PORT\"\n        >\n                      PORT\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>\n<div\n  id=\"cta_7429093390827532677\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta no-icon\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p left\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/professional.bloomberg.com\/products\/risk\/mars\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"MARS\"\n        >\n                      MARS\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><hr class=\"bbg-separator bbg-separator-1\" style=\"height:1px;\" \/>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-1\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To address this gap, Bloomberg has introduced Macro Scenario Analysis, extending the scenario analysis capabilities of PORT and MARS. Available to PORT users since April 6th, 2026, the framework links macroeconomic drivers directly to portfolio outcomes, enabling investors to move beyond the question of \u201cWhat if markets fall?&#8221; toward a more detailed understanding of how portfolios respond to shifts in growth, inflation, and geopolitical risk. <\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f128ee2'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_2\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Are hidden risk exposures impacting your performance?<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>See the full picture with Bloomberg Terminal's MAC3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_7066000668517370608\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/professional.bloomberg.com\/products\/risk\/mac3\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69f434f12cda6'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">The\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">e<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">volution of\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">tress\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">t<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">esting: From\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">f<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">actors to\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">m<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">acro\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">d<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW148582232 BCX0\">rivers<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW148582232 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, factor-based scenario analysis has been a reduced-form exercise. Investors might shock an equity index or a yield curve, but these shocks are often not explicitly tied to the underlying economic forces. The current macro backdrop &#8211; characterized by stagflationary pressures and regional instability &#8211; requires a more integrated approach.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The MAC3 Macro framework combines the <strong>Bloomberg Economics Forecast Model<\/strong> (Bloomberg Terminal users can access via SHOK&lt;GO&gt;) with a factor-based methodology grounded in structural macroeconomic shocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>While headline GDP growth often shows a limited contemporaneous relationship, on average, with asset returns, its underlying drivers, such as credit risk, policy rates, and economic uncertainty, tend to exhibit more stable and economically intuitive linkages. By constructing scenarios around these drivers, the framework introduces greater specificity into scenario design, resulting in outputs that are both interpretable and aligned with market behaviour.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">Case\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">tudy:\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW158434301 BCX0\">Analyzing<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">r<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">egional\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">c<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">onflict\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">t<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158434301 BCX0\">ransmission<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW158434301 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The value of this approach becomes clearer when applied to recent developments in the Middle East. The impact of regional conflict is not fully captured by isolated shocks to GDP or inflation; rather, it is better represented as a combination of supply disruptions, energy price shocks, and a flight to quality.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using the Middle East War scenario available in PORT as an example, we illustrate how our model estimates the impact of geopolitical risk on asset returns. In this scenario, the fundamental drivers are <em>rising oil prices, higher inflation expectations, and increased economic uncertainty<\/em> \u2014 three of the twelve economic variables available in SHOK&lt;GO&gt;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The magnitude of the crisis is determined by the size of the shocks to these drivers.\u00a0 The scenario is calibrated to produce a <strong>decline in U.S. GDP growth of approximately 0.16%<\/strong> and an<strong> increase in U.S. inflation of 0.75%<\/strong> relative to the corresponding baseline expectations. Users can adjust the magnitude by applying a linear scaling to these shocks.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model is then used to translate macro shocks into PORT core factor shocks, capturing both direct and cross-asset effects. In this scenario, increased uncertainty is associated with a <strong>13.8% rise in equity volatility<\/strong> and a <strong>2.23% decline in the US equity market factor,<\/strong> while the oil shock drives a <strong>13.18% increase in the crude oil factor.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>On the fixed income side, the model estimates a <strong>39 bps upward shift in the U.S. yield curve<\/strong> and a <strong>12 bps increase in the U.S. breakeven inflation factor.<\/strong> These core factor shocks are subsequently propagated across all MAC3 factors used to estimate security and portfolio-level returns. By default, PORT uses the latest available covariance matrix for propagation, but users can choose any historical covariance matrix that may be more consistent with the scenario.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW94756920 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW94756920 BCX0\">Scenario results and market comparison<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To assess the framework, we compare model outputs with observed market performance during the Iran related volatility episode (February 27 to March 11, 2026) across major Bloomberg equity and fixed income indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The model estimates a -2.33% return for the Bloomberg 500 Index (B500), compared with an observed return of -1.43%. Across fixed income indices, both total returns and their components, curve, spread, and FX, show broadly consistent patterns with realized outcomes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"780\" height=\"303\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"MAC3 NAV\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV.png 780w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV-552x214.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV-768x298.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV-192x75.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While differences in magnitude remain, the results indicate that the framework captures both the direction and relative scale of market moves, while also providing insight into the underlying drivers of performance.<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">A\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">uite of\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">cenarios for a\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">g<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">lobal\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">e<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">nvironmen<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW35114222 BCX0\">t<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW35114222 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The PORT Scenario Analysis tool includes a library of predefined scenarios covering a range of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks across the U.S. and Europe, including:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"525\" height=\"346\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV2.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"MAC3 NAV2\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV2.png 525w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/MAC3-NAV2-164x108.png 164w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This library enables users to quickly stress test portfolios against relevant \u201cwhat if\u201d scenarios directly within the PORT interface.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW194871628 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW194871628 BCX0\">Flexibility for\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW194871628 BCX0\">a<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW194871628 BCX0\">ctive\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW194871628 BCX0\">m<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW194871628 BCX0\">anagement<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW194871628 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The MAC3 framework is designed to support a range of investment views. A key component is the choice of variance covariance (VCV) matrix used in the propagation of shocks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During periods of macro stress, correlations across risky assets typically increase. MAC3 allows users to select VCV matrices calibrated to historical stress environments, helping ensure that cross-asset contagion effects are more realistically reflected in scenario results.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW31960234 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW31960234 BCX0\">Strategic\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW31960234 BCX0\">i<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW31960234 BCX0\">mplementation in PORT<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW31960234 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Macro Scenario Analysis is integrated directly into the PORT workspace via the <strong>Scenario<\/strong> tab and <strong>PREP MSR<\/strong> report, providing:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Security Level Granularity:<\/strong> Identify exposures to specific macro drivers such as energy shocks or demand slowdowns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Detailed Attribution:<\/strong> Decompose returns into FX, equity, curve, and spread components.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Actionable Reporting:<\/strong> Export results for client communication and internal risk discussions.<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW28784164 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW28784164 BCX0\">Turning\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW28784164 BCX0\">u<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW28784164 BCX0\">ncertainty into\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW28784164 BCX0\">s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW28784164 BCX0\">trategy<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW28784164 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Periods of elevated volatility can complicate investment decision making. By decomposing geopolitical events into structural macroeconomic drivers, such as demand, uncertainty, energy, and interest rates, MAC3 Macro Scenario Analysis offers a more structured approach to assessing risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ability to map macroeconomic shocks to portfolio outcomes provides investors with a clearer understanding of both potential impacts and their underlying drivers. As macro uncertainty persists, integrating economic modeling with portfolio analytics is likely to remain an important component of modern investment workflows.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>What is MAC3?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bloomberg MAC3 is a unified, multi-asset class factor risk model that provides a consistent view of risk across equities, fixed income, derivatives, and private assets. Integrated directly into PORT, it uses over 3,000 factors to decompose performance, identify risk drivers, and offer six analysis horizons for investment strategies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>What is PORT?\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bloomberg PORT is a comprehensive portfolio management and risk analytics platform integrated into the Bloomberg Terminal. It provides sophisticated tools for risk forecasting, performance attribution, and portfolio optimization. The platform supports multi-asset strategies across equities, fixed income, derivatives and private assets, offering actionable insights through advanced factor models like MAC3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For detailed technical instructions and a step by step workflow, please consult the \u201cMAC3 GRM Factor\u2014Based Scenario Analysis \u2014 User Guide\u201d on the Bloomberg Terminal. For more information on MAC3, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/risk\/mac3\/\">click here.<\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div class=\"bbg-accordion transparent\">\n\t<input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-69f434f1353ad\">\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-parent\" data-accordion-toggle aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t<label class=\"bbg-accordion-label\" for=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-69f434f1353ad\">\n\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"bbg-accordion-title\" data-label=\"Disclaimer\">\n\t\tDisclaimer\n\t<\/h5>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-content\">\n\t\t<div class=\"bb-wysiwyg\">\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Notwithstanding anything in the\u00a0<\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">MAC3 GRM Factor Based Macro Scenario Analysis\u00a0<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">(this \u201cWhite Paper\u201d) to the contrary, the information included in this White Paper is for informational purposes only. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and\/or its affiliates (as applicable, &#8220;Bloomberg&#8221;) makes no guarantee as to the adequacy,\u00a0correctness\u00a0or completeness of, or make any representation or warranty (whether express or implied) with respect to this White Paper. To the maximum extent\u00a0permitted\u00a0by law, Bloomberg and its affiliates shall not be responsible for or have any liability for any injuries or damages arising out of or in connection with this White Paper. All the information provided in this White Paper is confidential and proprietary to Bloomberg. Customer may not share, reproduce, publish,\u00a0distribute\u00a0or communicate this White Paper or information of any kind relating to these responses to any company, third parties or persons other than within Customer and only to such persons on a need\u2014to\u2014know basis in connection with this review.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the \u201cServices\u201d) are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. 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Learn how to translate complex macro shocks into precise, actionable insights for navigating volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2062,"featured_media":29315,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"469","footnotes":""},"categories":[453,534,469],"tags":[550,3849],"series":[],"class_list":["post-139382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets","category-regional-analysis","category-risk","tag-buy-side","tag-buyside_2026","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to navigate geopolitical stress with MAC3 | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Geopolitical stress is a measurable force shaping portfolio outcomes through growth, inflation and market uncertainty. 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