{"id":141478,"date":"2026-06-30T15:53:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T19:53:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/markets\/ai-boom-built-on-shaky-geopolitical-footing\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T10:12:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T14:12:11","slug":"ai-boom-built-on-shaky-geopolitical-footing","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/markets\/ai-boom-built-on-shaky-geopolitical-footing\/","title":{"rendered":"AI boom built on shaky geopolitical footing"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ac280dfd7eb6'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">AI boom built on shaky geopolitical footing<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/artificial-intelligence\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Artificial Intelligence\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"801\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/shutterstock_2262331367ressss2.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Close-up of Semiconductor Packaging Process.\" title=\"Close-up of Semiconductor Packaging Process.\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ac280dfe2b4c'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">June 30, 2026<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Economics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ac280dfe5436'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i>This article was written by Bloomberg Economics Geoeconomics Technology Analyst Michael Deng. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/i><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Just 44 artificial-intelligence-linked companies now account for roughly 45% of the S&amp;P 500 and 71% of the index\u2019s earnings growth. Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Oracle Corp. may spend a combined $3 trillion to $4 trillion on AI-related capex through 2032. Underpinning all of that isn\u2019t just confidence in the new technology, but a belief that politics \u2014 local, national and global \u2014 won\u2019t get in the way. That may be misplaced. Here are six reasons why:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world\u2019s advanced logic chips. Any conflict over the island could disrupt that supply and stall the AI buildout.<\/li>\n<li>Supply chains for the AI revolution depend on Chinese-controlled rare earths, conflict-vulnerable materials and physical infrastructure that\u2019s increasingly a target.<\/li>\n<li>Export controls are expanding from hardware to frontier models. Anthropic PBC\u2019s case shows how shifts in Washington can put a frontier AI firm in the crosshairs \u2014 especially as powerful models raise national security concerns.<\/li>\n<li>Tariffs haven\u2019t yet hit the core AI hardware stack, but the US imports an estimated 80% of the inputs needed to build it, and continued uncertainty alone deters investment.<\/li>\n<li>Local resistance to data centers has delayed or blocked an estimated $64 billion in US projects. Some 71% of Americans oppose construction in their area.<\/li>\n<li>AI skepticism is bipartisan. 80% of Americans want safety rules even if they slow development, a view shared by 88% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Taiwan disruption risk<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Taiwan accounts for more than 60% of the world\u2019s advanced logic chip production, including the processors used in AI servers. A Chinese invasion \u2014 unlikely in the near-term but far from implausible \u2014 would take that capacity offline, stalling data-center construction and forcing cloud providers to ration existing compute. The AI infrastructure build out would come to an extended halt.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"506\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-15-800x506.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Bar chart showing Taiwan leads in advanced logic\" title=\"Figure 1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-15-800x506.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-15-552x349.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-15-768x486.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-15-171x108.png 171w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-15.png 1114w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Supply chain vulnerabilities<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Taiwan isn\u2019t the only place where geopolitics and the AI supply chain intersect. The buildout depends on a global web of specialized inputs that can be disrupted by wars, shipping shocks, sanctions, export controls or production outages far from the data center itself.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing dominates rare-earth processing, permanent magnet production, battery materials, solar wafers and other manufactured components tied to the energy, cooling, grid and manufacturing systems needed to support data centers. China\u2019s rare-earth magnet controls in June 2025 showed how quickly that dominance can move from signaling to disruption.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-13-800x400.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"China expected to dominate rare earth processing in 2030\" title=\"Figure 2\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-13-800x400.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-13-552x276.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-13-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-13-192x96.png 192w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-13.png 1119w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ac280dfe9235'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_38749901050047153\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ac280dfedcb1'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Helium, which is difficult to replace in semiconductor manufacturing, saw production and shipping interrupted by the Iran conflict. Neon became a concern for chip production early in the war in Ukraine. In both cases, a seemingly obscure input suddenly threatened to constrain chip output.<\/p>\n<p>The risk runs wider than GPUs. Specialty materials, chipmaking tools, cooling and power systems, many of them with limited redundancy and long replacement timelines, are all vulnerable to supply chain outages.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"274\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-3-12-800x274.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Qatar accounts for a third of global helium production\" title=\"Figure 3\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-3-12-800x274.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-3-12-552x189.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-3-12-768x263.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-3-12-192x66.png 192w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-3-12.png 1124w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>As compute becomes strategic infrastructure, it can also become a target. Attacks and threats against Gulf cloud and data-center infrastructure during the Iran war showed that physical security is now part of the cost and geography of frontier compute.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Gulf AI infrastructure within Iranian missile range<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-4-10-800x420.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Range for Iranian missiles\" title=\"Figure 4\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-4-10-800x420.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-4-10-552x290.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-4-10-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-4-10-192x101.png 192w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-4-10.png 1113w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Frontier model controls<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The US Commerce Department\u2019s restriction on Anthropic shows that US export controls can limit access to alive frontier model, extending AI controls from the supply chain to the product itself. The full technical basis hasn\u2019t been made public. But the administration\u2019s request that OpenAI limit initial access to its latest model suggests the concern is broader than Anthropic. Together, these moves signal that governments are becoming less comfortable with the global spread of increasingly powerful AI systems, especially models with cyber or military applications.<\/p>\n<p>Frontier models are increasingly likely to be treated as strategic assets, subject to the kinds of access limits and release restrictions that have historically applied to hardware.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"571\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-5-8-800x571.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Anthropic&#039;s Fable tops US frontier model benchmarks\" title=\"Figure 5\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-5-8-800x571.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-5-8-552x394.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-5-8-768x548.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-5-8-151x108.png 151w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-5-8.png 1111w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Tariff uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Building a data center in the US requires servers, GPUs, networking gear, cooling systems and power equipment. An estimated 80% of the compute stack is imported. Taiwan supplied about $86 billion in server and related equipment in 2025, and effectively all US-brand AI servers are sourced from Taiwanese manufacturers.<\/p>\n<p>The direct tariff hit to AI hardware remains limited for now, with many core<br \/>\nsemiconductor and data-center uses still carved out, and the administration has shown flexibility in avoiding hitting priority sectors. But chip tariff s remain on the table. The White House has said broader duties may follow negotiations, and administration officials have framed the issue as one of timing and scale rather than whether semiconductor protection is needed.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers add up quickly when the US is on track to spend trillions<br \/>\non data-center infrastructure by 2030. One industry estimate put the cost of a 25% tariff on semiconductors used in data centers at roughly $90 billion a year, enough to relocate, cancel or delay about 20% of planned US buildouts through 2030. But the bigger constraint might be the uncertainty itself. Companies have less reason to commit to US fabs or datacenters if they can\u2019t tell what the tariff regime will look like.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Local resistance<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>In Matthews, North Carolina, developers withdrew a proposed data center after residents packed public meetings, organized a 2,700-signature petition and flooded local officials with opposition. The mayor said roughly 99 of every 100 emails he received were against the plan.<\/p>\n<p>Matthews isn\u2019t unusual. Gallup found in May that 71% of Americans oppose construction of an AI data center in their local area, making them more unpopular than nuclear plants, which drew 53% opposition. Virginia\u2019s legislative watchdog estimated that data-center-driven generation and transmission costs could add $14 to $37 a month to a typical Dominion Energy Inc. residential bill by 2040.<\/p>\n<p>Most countries\u2019 grids weren\u2019t built for the speed or scale of the current data-center rush, and the US regulatory system wasn\u2019t designed to move this fast. On June 18, FERC told regional grid operators to explain whether their rules can handle a wave of new data-center power demand, or change them if they can\u2019t. AI infrastructure can move only as fast as regulators can reconcile hyperscaler demand with reliability, customer bills and local resistance.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"461\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-6-3-800x461.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Bar chart showing data center load to double by 2035\" title=\"Figure 6\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-6-3-800x461.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-6-3-552x318.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-6-3-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-6-3-187x108.png 187w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-6-3.png 1115w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Public backlash to AI<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>AI skepticism is bipartisan. A Gallup poll found that 80% want the government to maintain AI safety rules even if that slows development, a view held by 88% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans and independents. A separate poll from Pew Research found that only 16% of US adults expect AI to have a positive impact over the next 20 years. Ahead of the midterms, both parties have reason to channel that into stricter oversight.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"554\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-7-3-800x554.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Diverging US, China sentiment on AI\" title=\"Figure 7\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-7-3-800x554.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-7-3-552x382.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-7-3-768x531.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-7-3-156x108.png 156w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-7-3.png 1117w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ac280e000a94'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-accordion transparent\">\n\t<input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-6ac280e001c5a\">\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-parent\" data-accordion-toggle aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t<label class=\"bbg-accordion-label\" for=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-6ac280e001c5a\">\n\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"bbg-accordion-title\" data-label=\"Disclaimer\">\n\t\tDisclaimer\n\t<\/h5>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-content\">\n\t\t<div class=\"bb-wysiwyg\">\n\t<p>The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. 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