{"id":143128,"date":"2026-09-03T16:17:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T20:17:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/regional-analysis\/venezuela-insight-us-oil-move-could-worsen-outlook-for-years\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T17:39:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T21:39:54","slug":"venezuela-insight-us-oil-move-could-worsen-outlook-for-years","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/regional-analysis\/venezuela-insight-us-oil-move-could-worsen-outlook-for-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Venezuela insight: US oil move could worsen outlook for years"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ab357095dd25'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Venezuela insight: US oil move could worsen outlook for years<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/regional-analysis\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Regional Analysis\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/380377751.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"Blue Metal Oil Barrels Stacked In A Warehouse\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/380377751.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/380377751.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/380377751.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/380377751.jpg 162w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ab35709694d7'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">September 3, 2026<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Economics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ab357096c042'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><em>This article is based on Bloomberg Economics analysis by Jimena Zuniga, Latin America Geoeconomics Analyst and Argentina Economist, and Chris Kennedy, Economic Statecraft Lead.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump\u2019s<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>tentative deal\u00a0to gain access to Venezuelan oil reserves risks worsening the country\u2019s political and economic outlook for years to come \u2014 rekindling nationalist and anti-American sentiment that had largely receded.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Until this move, the most likely outcome of an eventual democratic transition in Venezuela has been the election of a market-friendly, pro-Western government, probably under opposition leader\u00a0Maria Corina Machado. If free and fair elections were held today, Machado would likely win in a landslide, reflecting backlash against years of economic mismanagement and political repression under chavismo.<\/li>\n<li>Venezuela could also reach a durable consensus around that new orientation, similar to how Colombia\u2019s experience with violent left-wing guerrillas helped underpin a long-lasting center-right political consensus.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ab357096dbec'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">What matters most in markets today?<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Get the latest insights, outlooks, webinars and more with Bloomberg newsletters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_4784696829649235547\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ab3570972ed4'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1369\" height=\"948\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Machado-Would-Probably-Win-If-Elections-Were-Held-Today.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"Machado Would Probably Win If Elections Were Held Today\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Machado-Would-Probably-Win-If-Elections-Were-Held-Today.png 1369w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Machado-Would-Probably-Win-If-Elections-Were-Held-Today-552x382.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Machado-Would-Probably-Win-If-Elections-Were-Held-Today-800x554.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Machado-Would-Probably-Win-If-Elections-Were-Held-Today-768x532.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Machado-Would-Probably-Win-If-Elections-Were-Held-Today-156x108.png 156w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1369px) 100vw, 1369px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<ul>\n<li>The highly controversial nature of the deal has the potential to disrupt that trajectory. The agreement was struck with an illegitimate government under acting President\u00a0Delcy Rodr\u00edguez. It relies on a\u00a0controversial interlocutor, is at odds with Venezuela\u2019s legal framework and has been presented\u00a0largely in terms of US interests.<\/li>\n<li>It is likely to prove deeply unpopular with Venezuelans, undermining the positive image of US leadership and broader pro-US sentiment that emerged following the operation to oust former President\u00a0Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1369\" height=\"556\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Political-Leaders-Image-in-Venezuela.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"Political Leaders&#039; Image in Venezuela\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Political-Leaders-Image-in-Venezuela.png 1369w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Political-Leaders-Image-in-Venezuela-552x224.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Political-Leaders-Image-in-Venezuela-800x325.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Political-Leaders-Image-in-Venezuela-768x312.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Political-Leaders-Image-in-Venezuela-192x78.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1369px) 100vw, 1369px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<ul>\n<li>The deal also undermines Venezuela\u2019s democratic opposition. Having broadly supported US pressure and involvement in their country, key opposition leaders now risk being associated with Washington at a time when US policy is increasingly perceived as exploitative and at odds with Venezuelans\u2019 interests.<\/li>\n<li>That could create political space for more ideological strands of chavismo to emerge as a clearer alternative to the current government over time. Such groups could seek to distance themselves from Rodr\u00edguez while reviving a more state-centric, nationalist and anti-US political message.<\/li>\n<li>This, of course, also undermines Venezuela\u2019s economic outlook.\u00a0Economic populism\u00a0pushed to extremes under chavismo led to economic collapse and levels of emigration rarely seen in peacetime. Yet Venezuela\u2019s vast natural wealth, combined with a large and still relatively recent diaspora, offers the possibility of a significant economic rebound under a different political landscape. That prospect becomes dimmer the longer elections are delayed, particularly if the delay increases the risk \u2014 until now marginal \u2014 that a future election could be won by a new brand of economic populists.<\/li>\n<li>The democratic, market-friendly, and pro-West opposition is already in a difficult spot. It is telling that Machado has yet to issue a public reaction several days after the news, underscoring the political bind the agreement creates for a movement that has been closely aligned with Washington.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1241\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Venezuelas-Implosion.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"Venezuela&#039;s Implosion\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Venezuelas-Implosion.png 1241w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Venezuelas-Implosion-552x378.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Venezuelas-Implosion-800x548.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Venezuelas-Implosion-768x526.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Venezuelas-Implosion-158x108.png 158w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1241px) 100vw, 1241px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<ul>\n<li>From a US perspective, this risks squandering a rare strategic opportunity. A genuine transition leading to competitive elections could have produced a market-friendly government closely aligned with the US \u2014 one that would likely be welcomed by both sides of the political aisle in Washington. The Trump administration may now be trading that long-term upside for little or nothing: given the high political risks surrounding the agreement, we think it is unlikely to deliver even its narrow, short-term benefits, as we have highlighted\u00a0here.<\/li>\n<li>From an investment perspective, we think the agreement heightens the political risk surrounding any policy enacted by the current regime, whether\u00a0on debt, oil or other areas.<\/li>\n<li>A future democratically elected government in Caracas would face considerable pressure to repeal policies perceived as contrary to Venezuela\u2019s national interest and imposed at gunpoint through an illegitimate regime. And if Democrats win control of the White House in the 2028 election, the odds are low that they would prioritize defending the recently announced deal \u2014 or Trump\u2019s broader Venezuela policy.<\/li>\n<li>Even without a democratic transition in the medium term, the current regime in Caracas would likely have few qualms about reversing course the minute US pressure eases under a potential new administration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6ab3570977d31]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #f4f4f9;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--f4f4f9 text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6ab3570977d31'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    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