{"id":144537,"date":"2026-10-22T18:09:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/fixed-income\/ai-issuance-when-debt-growth-reshapes-bond-benchmarks\/"},"modified":"2026-10-22T18:29:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:29:26","slug":"ai-issuance-when-debt-growth-reshapes-bond-benchmarks","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/fixed-income\/ai-issuance-when-debt-growth-reshapes-bond-benchmarks\/","title":{"rendered":"AI issuance: When debt growth reshapes bond benchmarks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a736fdad'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">AI issuance: When debt growth reshapes bond benchmarks<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/fixed-income\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Fixed Income\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/technology\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Technology\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Display.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Display screen\" title=\"Display screen\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Display.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Display.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Display.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Display.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Display.jpg 162w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a737c060'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">October 22, 2026<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Professional Services<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a737e92b'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--has-bg-color\"\n    style=\"background-color:#e6f3ff;border-radius: 16px 16px 16px 16px;\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-custom bbg-card-text-black\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n      <style>#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {background-color: #e6f3ff;}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tborder: 1px solid #e6f3ff !important;\n\t}#card_1:hover .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tborder: 1px solid #e6f3ff !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper {\n\tpadding: calc(var(--brand-large-padding, 40px) - 1px) !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__title {\n\tcolor: #000000 !important;\n\t}#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__content,#card_1 .bbg-card__innerwrapper .bbg-card__content p  {\n\tcolor: #000000 !important;\n\t}#card_1.bbg-card_hasImage .bbg-card__innerwrapper{padding-top: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);padding-left: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);padding-right: calc(var(--brand-default-padding, 16px) - 1px);}<\/style>\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__eyebrow\" style=\"color: #000000\">KEY TAKEAWAYS<\/div>\n      \n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW158199132 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW158199132 BCX0\">Rapid debt growth has historically been followed by weaker excess returns among US investment-grade issuers, even when issuers had similar spread-duration exposure.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW158199132 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:0}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW216543683 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW216543683 BCX0\">High-debt-growth issuers accounted for 50% of cumulative index tail damage despite <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW216543683 BCX0\">representing<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW216543683 BCX0\"> 29% of benchmark exposure.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW216543683 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:0}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"TextRun SCXW185156833 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW185156833 BCX0\">The combination of issuer size and rapid debt growth may be particularly relevant as AI-related investment drives a new wave of corporate borrowing.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW185156833 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:0}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a7381ef5'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW117422748 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117422748 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"normaltextrun\" data-ccp-charstyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;ac0262f4-8a9e-5820-b908-2d943c5f7113|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;1&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;1&quot;,201342449,&quot;1&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos&quot;,469777842,&quot;&quot;,469777843,&quot;Aptos&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos&quot;,201341986,&quot;1&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos&quot;,268442635,&quot;24&quot;,469775450,&quot;normaltextrun&quot;,201340122,&quot;1&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;normaltextrun&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,469778324,&quot;Default Paragraph Font&quot;&#093;}\">This article was written by Vikas Jain, Index Quant Research and <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW117422748 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"normaltextrun\">Yingjin<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117422748 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"normaltextrun\"> Gan, Head of Index Research at Bloomberg<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117422748 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"normaltextrun\">.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW117422748 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;be1baac0-2529-51c7-ba60-816a7f415f40|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;0&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;3&quot;,201342449,&quot;0&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,469777842,&quot;Calibri&quot;,469777843,&quot;\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,201341986,&quot;0&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos Display,Calibri,\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,268442635,&quot;28&quot;,469775450,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134234082,&quot;true&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;SystematicStrategiesSub-Header1&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335551500,&quot;10498160&quot;,335551547,&quot;1033&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,335559739,&quot;120&quot;,335551550,&quot;6&quot;,335551620,&quot;6&quot;,134245417,&quot;false&quot;,469777929,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1 Char&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\" data-ccp-parastyle-linked-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;d6ef1ad6-057d-5b89-802c-47fcb5d9b06d|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;0&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;3&quot;,201342449,&quot;0&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,469777842,&quot;Calibri&quot;,469777843,&quot;\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,201341986,&quot;0&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos Display,Calibri,\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,268442635,&quot;28&quot;,469775450,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1 Char&quot;,201340122,&quot;1&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;SystematicStrategiesSub-Header1Char&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,134231262,&quot;true&quot;,335551500,&quot;10498160&quot;,335551547,&quot;1033&quot;,469777929,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1&quot;,469778324,&quot;Default Paragraph Font&quot;&#093;}\">Concentration risk is usually associated with equity benchmarks. Corporate bond indices are <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">considerably more<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> dispersed, and our <\/span><\/span><a class=\"Hyperlink SCXW106525190 BCX0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/evaluating-market-value-weighting-in-us-corporate-bond-benchmarks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">previous research<\/span><\/span><\/a><span class=\"TextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> found little evidence that larger investment<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">grade issuers systematically deliver weaker returns. Market<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">value weighting also aligns benchmark exposure with the investable market, <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">liquidity<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> and available capacity.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW106525190 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a7383f20'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-3\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div><hr class=\"bbg-separator bbg-separator-1\" style=\"height:1px;\" \/>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">PRODUCT MENTIONS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n  id=\"cta_5041673464061539400\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta no-icon\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p left\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/indices\/fixed-income\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices\"\n        >\n                      Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 32px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><hr class=\"bbg-separator bbg-separator-1\" style=\"height:1px;\" \/>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-1\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;be1baac0-2529-51c7-ba60-816a7f415f40|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;0&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;3&quot;,201342449,&quot;0&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,469777842,&quot;Calibri&quot;,469777843,&quot;\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,201341986,&quot;0&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos Display,Calibri,\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,268442635,&quot;28&quot;,469775450,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134234082,&quot;true&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;SystematicStrategiesSub-Header1&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335551500,&quot;10498160&quot;,335551547,&quot;1033&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,335559739,&quot;120&quot;,335551550,&quot;6&quot;,335551620,&quot;6&quot;,134245417,&quot;false&quot;,469777929,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1 Char&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\" data-ccp-parastyle-linked-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;d6ef1ad6-057d-5b89-802c-47fcb5d9b06d|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;0&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;3&quot;,201342449,&quot;0&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,469777842,&quot;Calibri&quot;,469777843,&quot;\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,201341986,&quot;0&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos Display,Calibri,\u6e38\u660e\u671d&quot;,268442635,&quot;28&quot;,469775450,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1 Char&quot;,201340122,&quot;1&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;SystematicStrategiesSub-Header1Char&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,134231262,&quot;true&quot;,335551500,&quot;10498160&quot;,335551547,&quot;1033&quot;,469777929,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1&quot;,469778324,&quot;Default Paragraph Font&quot;&#093;}\">Yet the same construction links benchmark weights directly to borrowing. When an issuer adds index<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">eligible debt, its benchmark weight rises<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">, all else equal<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">.<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> A large, <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">established<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> debt may simply reflect a financing structure that the business has supported for many years. Meanwhile, rapid debt growth changes the issuer\u2019s financing profile, and the <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">additional<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> borrowing still needs to be supported by future cash flows.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW80759104 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a7387db0'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">That distinction matters more in the current AI investment cycle, as AI-related capex drives a new wave of corporate borrowing. Six selected issuers &#8211; Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, Nvidia and SpaceX &#8211; increased their combined weight in the Bloomberg Global Corporate Index from 2.24% in August 2025 to 5.17% in July 2026. Together, they represented roughly 20% of net issuance over the period.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">This article looks at whether rapid debt growth has historically been followed by weaker credit performance, how issuer size can affect the benchmark impact and what the findings could mean amid the current AI-related issuance cycle.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a738949f'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_2.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_2\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Tailored indices insights and invitations in your inbox<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Sign up<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_6116970548084710092\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/explore\/indices-insights-tailored-to-your-interests\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6adb6a738c95f'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Is rapid debt growth followed by weaker returns historically?<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">Much of the debate around bond<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">index construction has focused on whether market<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">value weighting \u201crewards\u201d the most indebted borrowers. Our earlier work suggests that this concern is less important than it may first appear, particularly in investment grade. Reducing issuer concentration <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">substantially had<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">little effect<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\"> on historical US <span class=\"TextRun SCXW175870938 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW175870938 BCX0\">investment grade (IG)<\/span><\/span>\u00a0excess returns.<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45436896 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW45436896 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This analysis focuses instead on change:<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\"> whether rapid growth in an issuer\u2019s debt is followed by weaker credit performance.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">We examine US investment-grade issuers and measure the trailing 12-month change in each issuer\u2019s amount outstanding. We then group issuers by debt growth and compare their subsequent excess returns, before examining sector composition, issuer size and tail events.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1013\" height=\"803\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1a-.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Debt-Growth Cohorts and Subsequent Excess Returns\" title=\"Debt-Growth Cohorts and Subsequent Excess Returns\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1a-.png 1013w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1a--552x438.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1a--800x634.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1a--768x609.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1a--136x108.png 136w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"961\" height=\"517\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1bb.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Debt-Growth Cohorts and Subsequent Excess Returns - Information Ratio and Duration Times Spread\" title=\"Debt-Growth Cohorts and Subsequent Excess Returns - Information Ratio and Duration Times Spread\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1bb.png 961w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1bb-552x297.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1bb-800x430.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1bb-768x413.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-1bb-192x103.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 961px) 100vw, 961px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Issuers reducing their debt generated annualised excess returns of 1.75%, compared with 0.90% for issuers whose amount outstanding increased by more than 20%. Issuers with broadly stable debt also performed better than those experiencing faster growth.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\" data-ccp-parastyle-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;be1baac0-2529-51c7-ba60-816a7f415f40|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;0&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;3&quot;,201342449,&quot;0&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,469777842,&quot;Calibri&quot;,469777843,&quot;\u7b49\u7ebf&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,201341986,&quot;0&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos Display,Calibri,\u7b49\u7ebf&quot;,268442635,&quot;28&quot;,469775450,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1&quot;,201340122,&quot;2&quot;,134234082,&quot;true&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;SystematicStrategiesSub-Header1&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,335551500,&quot;10498160&quot;,335551547,&quot;1033&quot;,335559740,&quot;240&quot;,201341983,&quot;0&quot;,335559739,&quot;120&quot;,335551550,&quot;6&quot;,335551620,&quot;6&quot;,134245417,&quot;false&quot;,469777929,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1 Char&quot;,469778324,&quot;Normal&quot;&#093;}\" data-ccp-parastyle-linked-defn=\"{&quot;ObjectId&quot;:&quot;d6ef1ad6-057d-5b89-802c-47fcb5d9b06d|1&quot;,&quot;ClassId&quot;:1073872969,&quot;Properties&quot;:&#091;201342446,&quot;0&quot;,201342447,&quot;5&quot;,201342448,&quot;3&quot;,201342449,&quot;0&quot;,469777841,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,469777842,&quot;Calibri&quot;,469777843,&quot;\u7b49\u7ebf&quot;,469777844,&quot;Aptos Display&quot;,201341986,&quot;0&quot;,469769226,&quot;Aptos Display,Calibri,\u7b49\u7ebf&quot;,268442635,&quot;28&quot;,469775450,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1 Char&quot;,201340122,&quot;1&quot;,134233614,&quot;true&quot;,469778129,&quot;SystematicStrategiesSub-Header1Char&quot;,335572020,&quot;1&quot;,134231262,&quot;true&quot;,335551500,&quot;10498160&quot;,335551547,&quot;1033&quot;,469777929,&quot;Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1&quot;,469778324,&quot;Default Paragraph Font&quot;&#093;}\">T<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">he two extreme cohorts carried <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">very similar<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> spread<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">duration exposure<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">,<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">so <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">the return <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">gap <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">does not appe<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">ar to <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">be explained by <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">credit<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">beta<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> alone<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">.<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">This differs from the earlier size <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">result, where credit<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">quality differences explained part of the return pattern. Here, the extreme debt<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">growth cohorts have similar spread-duration exposure<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">.<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">T<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">he same ordering <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\">remains<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW45287 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"Systematic Strategies Sub-Header 1\"> when issuers are compared within rating groups.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The result is similar when debt growth is measured relative to the market rather than using fixed cut-offs. Repeating the analysis for the Bloomberg Global Corporate Index also produced a similar pattern across debt-growth cohorts.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW34563118 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW34563118 BCX0\">Issuance tends to arrive in clusters<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW34563118 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\">Corporate borrowing is rarely distributed evenly across the market. Financing cycles<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\"> concentrat<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\">e<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\"> in<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\">different <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\">sectors depending on the prevailing environment.<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW169804769 BCX0\">Even within a sector, issuance can be concentrated in a small number of borrowers.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW169804769 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1006\" height=\"775\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-2.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Two Historical Issuance Cycles: Sector and Issuer Weights Before Credit Stress\" title=\"Two Historical Issuance Cycles: Sector and Issuer Weights Before Credit Stress\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-2.png 1006w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-2-552x425.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-2-800x616.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-2-768x592.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-2-140x108.png 140w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">Sector weights <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">historically <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">differed across the debt growth portfolios over parts of the sample. <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">Roughly half<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\"> of the historical return spread between the debt<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">reduction and high<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">debt<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">growth cohorts<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">is<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\"> attributable to differences in sector weights, although much of th<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">is wa<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">s associated with the banking cycle around the global <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">financial crisis<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">. The remaining return differential arises within sectors, suggesting that the result is not solely a sector<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW24678191 BCX0\">allocation effect.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW24678191 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"939\" height=\"748\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-3.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Decomposition of Debt Reduction Versus High Debt Growth\" title=\"Decomposition of Debt Reduction Versus High Debt Growth\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-3.png 939w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-3-552x440.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-3-800x637.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-3-768x612.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-3-136x108.png 136w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 939px) 100vw, 939px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\">How <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\">is <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\">debt growth relate<\/span><\/span><span class=\"TrackChangeTextInsertion TrackedChange SCXW229961087 BCX0\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\">d<\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"TextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW229961087 BCX0\"> to tail risk?\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW229961087 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The historical record includes familiar episodes. WorldCom and Lehman were both in debt-growing cohorts before their subsequent tail events, with Lehman among the largest high-growth losses in the sample.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">More broadly, issuers with growing debt accounted for 71% of cumulative index tail damage, while the high-growth cohort alone contributed 50% of damage despite representing only 29% of benchmark exposure. But debt growth does not capture every credit event, as 29% of historical tail damage came from issuers whose balance sheets were stable or shrinking.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"938\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-4.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Benchmark Exposure, Tail-Event Frequency and Tail Damage by Debt-Growth Cohort\" title=\"Benchmark Exposure, Tail-Event Frequency and Tail Damage by Debt-Growth Cohort\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-4.png 938w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-4-552x371.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-4-800x537.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-4-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-4-161x108.png 161w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 938px) 100vw, 938px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">Credit returns are tail<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">driven, and a small number of rating migrations and credit events explain a meaningful share of the result. <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">Where <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">additional<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\"> borrowing raises leverage, weakens interest coverage or reduces balance<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">&#8211;<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">sheet flexibility, credit deterioration can follow. But issuance can also be a symptom rather than a cause<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW251318155 BCX0\">: companies may borrow because fundamentals are weakening, acquisitions are underway or liquidity needs are rising.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW251318155 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW80274703 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW80274703 BCX0\">How do issuer size and debt growth interact?<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP CommentStart CommentHighlightPipeRest PointComment CommentHighlightRest SCXW80274703 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Size alone told us relatively little about subsequent IG returns. The stronger result appears when size and growth are considered together.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Within each size group, higher debt growth was followed by weaker excess returns. The gap also increased with issuer size, from roughly 0.5 percentage points among smaller issuers to around 0.8 percentage points among the largest. Debt growth tells us how quickly an issuer&#8217;s financing profile is changing; size tells us how much that change matters for the index.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The tail results make the size effect clearer. Smaller high-growth issuers had tail events relatively often, but their small benchmark weights limited the index impact. Large high-growth issuers did not have dramatically more tail events, but the events mattered much more when they occurred.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"955\" height=\"613\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-5.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Excess Returns and Tail Outcomes by Issuer Size and Debt Growth\" title=\"Excess Returns and Tail Outcomes by Issuer Size and Debt Growth\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-5.png 955w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-5-552x354.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-5-800x514.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-5-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-5-168x108.png 168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 955px) 100vw, 955px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\">Debt growth <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\">shows<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\"> where <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\">financing profile is<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\"> changing<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\">, while<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\"> size <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\">determines<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW104843124 BCX0\"> how much that risk matters to the benchmark.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW104843124 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW43566532 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW43566532 BCX0\">What the historical evidence means for today\u2019s AI issuance cycle<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW43566532 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Neither size nor debt growth is a problem on its own. The more interesting case is an issuer that is already a meaningful benchmark weight and is adding debt quickly.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The selected AI-related issuers\u2019 credit spreads have widened recently. Within the Bloomberg Global Corporate Index, the group&#8217;s OAS moved from 23bp tighter than the index in January 2021 to 44bp wider by July 2026, while their combined benchmark weight rose from 1.88% to 5.17%. Most of both moves occurred over the past year.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"954\" height=\"705\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-6.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"AI-Related Issuers\" title=\"AI-Related Issuers\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-6.png 954w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-6-552x408.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-6-800x591.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-6-768x568.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/FI-Chart-6-146x108.png 146w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 954px) 100vw, 954px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2><span class=\"TextRun SCXW78167081 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW78167081 BCX0\" data-ccp-parastyle=\"heading 2\">Precision and customization in fixed income indexing<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected CommentStart SCXW78167081 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Amount outstanding, however, captures only direct bond-market financing. AI infrastructure can also be funded through joint ventures, project-finance vehicles, leases, private credit and other channels. Some of that debt sits outside the corporate issuer, while lease and purchase commitments may not appear in issuer-level bond amount outstanding. Direct corporate debt therefore tells only part of the story and may understate the broader financing commitments.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Index design can also change how quickly new debt enters the portfolio. New issuance can be phased in, high-growth issuers can be underweighted or excluded, or optimisation can be used to keep the portfolio close to the parent benchmark. Each approach involves a trade-off between reducing debt-growth exposure, turnover and benchmark deviation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The trade-offs between debt-growth exposure, turnover and benchmark deviation highlight the importance of defining benchmark exposures in line with specific investment objectives.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:240,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As portfolio construction becomes more targeted, defining benchmark exposures with precision is becoming increasingly important. Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices give investors tools to tailor exposures consistently and transparently . Supported by integrated data and analytics on the Bloomberg Terminal, users can combine asset classes, apply constraints and refine methodologies in line with specific investment objectives.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/indices\/fixed-income\/\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW140109483 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun CommentStart CommentHighlightPipeRest CommentHighlightRest SCXW140109483 BCX0\">Explore Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW140109483 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559738&quot;:240,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6adb6a7397b1d]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #f4f4f9;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--f4f4f9 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This analysis examines how rapid debt growth has historically affected credit performance and what rising issuance could mean for bond benchmarks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1935,"featured_media":110302,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"3938","footnotes":""},"categories":[3938,453,3661],"tags":[526,3671,547,3842],"series":[],"class_list":["post-144537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-markets","category-technology","tag-fixed-income","tag-fixed-income-indices","tag-indices","tag-indices_2026","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>AI issuance: When debt growth reshapes bond benchmarks | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AI-related investment is driving a new wave of corporate borrowing. 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