{"id":96956,"date":"2024-10-29T12:37:23","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T16:37:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/commodities\/commodities-take-the-elevator-up-and-the-stairs-down\/"},"modified":"2025-02-27T08:41:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T13:41:00","slug":"commodities-take-the-elevator-up-and-the-stairs-down","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/commodities\/commodities-take-the-elevator-up-and-the-stairs-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodities take the elevator up and the stairs down"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7a4d7e52d1'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div>\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Commodities take the elevator up and the stairs down<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/commodities\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Commodities\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/professional.content.cirrus.bloomberg.com\/professional2023\/insights\/category\/data\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Data\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2667\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Stock market curve\" title=\"Stock Market Curve\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg 4000w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3668095321.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7a4d7f121b'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">October 29, 2024<\/p>\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Professional Services<\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t<div class=\"bb-tts\" \n\t\t\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\t\t\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\t\t\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\" \n\t\t\tdata-overlay=\"false\" \n\t\t\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\t\t\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\t\t\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\t\t\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\t\t\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\t\t\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7a4d7f3594'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p><em>This article was written by Jim Wiederhold, Commodity Indices Product Manager at Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Equities have enjoyed one of the best recent 20-year periods in history, only falling in 3 calendar years since 2003. The cumulative increase over this period is over 5X. With equities at elevated levels, now may be time to add diversification to a portfolio through a commodities exposure.<\/p>\n<p>Asset class performance is a key determinant for deciding how to allocate within a portfolio. Recent performance tends to garner more importance in determining what to keep in a portfolio, what to take out, and what new exposure to add. This decade, performance of commodities has shown the 2020s have been a good time to hold commodities exposure, and that doing so contributed meaningfully to portfolio returns. In 2021, equities and commodities both rose 27%.\u00a0 In 2022, commodities rose again by 16%, while equities fell 20%.\u00a0 These disparate returns illustrate the diversification benefits, and volatility\u2014dampening aspects, of a commodities allocation. Historically, commodities prices tend to move much more dramatically to the upside then to the downside &#8211; taking the elevator up and the stairs down.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7a4d803302'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_6679988704157126017\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7a4d80b345'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p>Equities and other asset classes tend to rise much more slowly over time. In some instances, like the last quarters of 1987 and 2008, equities can fall with high volatility. Looking at data over the last 60+ years, the most extreme upside moves for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) were more amplified than downside moves for the commodities asset class (Exhibit 1). The average top 10 positive years for BCOM were more than 2x more powerful than the average top 10 moves to the downside. Surprisingly, the average for the top 10 downside years for BCOM was right in line with the average for the top 10 worst years for equities.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm14.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Average Top 10 Best Versus Worst Performances Since 1960\" title=\"comm14\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm14.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm14.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm14.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm14.jpg 941w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p>For equities, the average upside of the best years was 70% of the upside seen from commodities. When volatility picks up like we\u2019ve seen so far in the 2020s, the price performances of these two asset classes tend to diverge. Some of the best years for commodities in the 1970s corresponded with some of the worst years for equities. Commodities prices can shoot higher, while the most extreme downside moves (roughly -20%) are in line with the most extreme equity downsides moves. This can be attributed to the notion commodities prices are not forward-looking like equities and reflect the current supply\/demand balances at play in the present. When information changes drastically which tends to be new news regarding geopolitical uprisings, weather related supply issues, or unexpected new demand drivers, this changes the current situation for commodities and prices typically rise to meet current supply\/demand imbalances. Surprisingly when looking at all prices moves during this period, commodities averaged at worst only -17% average downside quarterly performances while equities averaged -19%.<\/p>\n<p>Commodities have been known to be one of the more volatile asset classes, but over the last year, commodities\u2019 volatility has mostly been in line or below that of equities (Exhibit 2). Commodities could potentially lead to more upside performance for a portfolio based on how the asset class historically outperforms without increasing a portfolio\u2019s risk profile.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"505\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm15.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Asset class volatility\" title=\"comm15\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm15.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm15.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm15.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/comm15.jpg 945w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<p>When commodities prices shoot higher, it tends to be unexpected and outside of most forecasts (due to the fact prices reflect the current supply\/demand balances as discussed earlier). This implies that to benefit from these unexpected price appreciations, you need to hold a long exposure continuously. There are ways to hold exposure with a reduced negative roll yield impact over time by looking to commodities indices like the Bloomberg Enhanced Roll Yield Index (BERY) or the Bloomberg Commodity F3 Index (BCOMF3). Theses versions are situated on different points on the commodities futures curves and tend to allow a market participant to hold a long commodities exposure over time and in some cases capture a positive roll yield. Regardless of the broad commodities expression used, the underlying traits for all commodities indices is they can provide diversification and inflation hedging when used in a portfolio. Prudent portfolio management involves adjusting allocations according to changing market themes and dynamics and the tailwinds for commodities markets now should be considered when thinking about portfolio diversification.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h6><em>BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG INDICES and Bloomberg Compact Index Series (the \u201cIndices\u201d) are trademarks or service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited, the administrator of the Indices (collectively, \u201cBloomberg\u201d) or Bloomberg&#8217;s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Indices. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy or completeness of any data or information relating to the Indices. Bloomberg makes no warranty, express or implied, as to the Indices or any data or values relating thereto or results to be obtained therefrom, and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect thereto. It is not possible to invest directly in an Index. Back-tested performance is not actual performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results. To the maximum extent allowed by law, Bloomberg, its licensors, and its and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers and vendors shall have no liability or responsibility whatsoever for any injury or damages &#8211; whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise &#8211; arising in connection with the Indices or any data or values relating thereto &#8211; whether arising from their negligence or otherwise. This document constitutes the provision of factual information, rather than financial product advice. Nothing in the Indices shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations (i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to \u201cbuy\u201d, \u201csell\u201d, \u201chold\u201d, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests) by Bloomberg or a recommendation as to an investment or other strategy by Bloomberg. Data and other information available via the Indices should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. All information provided by the Indices is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. Bloomberg does not express an opinion on the future or expected value of any security or other interest and do not explicitly or implicitly recommend or suggest an investment strategy of any kind. Customers should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions. \u00a9 2024 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This document and its contents may not be forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent of Bloomberg<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/h6>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n\t<style>section[data-anchor=row-69d7a4d8150ec]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #f4f4f9;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\t<section\n\tclass='bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--f4f4f9 text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed' data-anchor='row-69d7a4d8150ec'\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"\n\t\tbbg-row--content\t\t\"\n>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \t\t\t<div\n\t\t\tclass='bb-wysiwyg ' style=''>\n\t\t\t<h3>Related Content<\/h3>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-4 bbg-column--halign-right\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<div\n  id=\"cta_2748623126168802489\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n   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We explain how commodities could potentially lead to more upside performance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1679,"featured_media":97038,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"540","footnotes":""},"categories":[540,435],"tags":[3673,3672,547],"series":[],"class_list":["post-96956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-data","tag-commodity-indices","tag-equity-indices","tag-indices","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Commodities take the elevator up and the stairs down | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With equities at elevated levels, now may be time to add diversification to your portfolio. 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