Research
Commodity deflation looks tenacious, with natural gas as driver
Natural gas, the primary source of heat, electricity and fertilizer in the US, has dropped below its break-even cost of around $2 per million British thermal units, with implications for most commodities, notably crude oil.
Research
Commodities shifted to top down in 2022, which may endure in 2024
Rising elasticity, the unprecedented liquidity pump that's dumping and a potential paradigm shift in Chinese demand all point to more declines in commodities in 2024.
Research
ESG AUM set to top $40 trillion by 2030, anchor capital markets
The ESG market could surpass $40 trillion by 2030, based on our scenario analysis, anchoring the $140 trillion of projected AUM globally despite 70% slower growth and polarized sentiment.
Research
Generational US treasury shift: Sideways or uptrend?
Treasury yields could trade sideways over the next decade if our expectations are realized.
Research
Global Copper 2024 industry outlook: From near-term glut to long-term scarcity
Global copper producers benefited from robust China demand in 1H.
Research
Global Autos 2024 industry outlook: Profit paths to diverge
The global auto industry faces slower profit growth as the Covid-induced vehicle shortage, which gave US and EU automakers significant pricing power, is set to reverse.
Research
2024 outlook: Global internet
Internet companies could see pressure from lower brand-ad spending and slow improvement in ad pricing, with any contribution from generative AI likely small in the near term.
Research
2024 outlook: US regional banks
Following bank failures and aggressive interest-rate hikes, regional lenders face headwinds in higher funding costs, muted lending, tougher regulation and weakening credit quality.
Research
US equities 2024 outlook: The double dip
A second dip in the US economy is likely underway and could create complications for the parts of the S&P 500 that largely avoided the 2022 slump as 2024 kicks off.
Market Analysis
Trash or treasure? Distressed Chinese bonds reach $60 billion
The list of Chinese distressed bonds is getting longer by the day as the nation’s property market meltdown topples developers.